[go: up one dir, main page]

Castellani et al., 2006 - Google Patents

Forecasting long-term government bond yields: an application of statistical and AI models

Castellani et al., 2006

View PDF
Document ID
18057348835576683549
Author
Castellani M
Santos E
Publication year

External Links

Snippet

This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging …
Continue reading at core.ac.uk (PDF) (other versions)

Classifications

    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N3/00Computer systems based on biological models
    • G06N3/02Computer systems based on biological models using neural network models
    • G06N3/04Architectures, e.g. interconnection topology
    • G06N3/0472Architectures, e.g. interconnection topology using probabilistic elements, e.g. p-rams, stochastic processors
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N3/00Computer systems based on biological models
    • G06N3/02Computer systems based on biological models using neural network models
    • G06N3/08Learning methods
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
    • G06Q10/063Operations research or analysis
    • G06Q10/0635Risk analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N99/00Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass
    • G06N99/005Learning machines, i.e. computer in which a programme is changed according to experience gained by the machine itself during a complete run
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/02Banking, e.g. interest calculation, credit approval, mortgages, home banking or on-line banking
    • G06Q40/025Credit processing or loan processing, e.g. risk analysis for mortgages
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/06Investment, e.g. financial instruments, portfolio management or fund management
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N5/00Computer systems utilising knowledge based models
    • G06N5/04Inference methods or devices
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N3/00Computer systems based on biological models
    • G06N3/12Computer systems based on biological models using genetic models
    • G06N3/126Genetic algorithms, i.e. information processing using digital simulations of the genetic system
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N5/00Computer systems utilising knowledge based models
    • G06N5/02Knowledge representation
    • G06N5/022Knowledge engineering, knowledge acquisition
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/04Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/08Insurance, e.g. risk analysis or pensions
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N7/00Computer systems based on specific mathematical models
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06KRECOGNITION OF DATA; PRESENTATION OF DATA; RECORD CARRIERS; HANDLING RECORD CARRIERS
    • G06K9/00Methods or arrangements for reading or recognising printed or written characters or for recognising patterns, e.g. fingerprints
    • G06K9/62Methods or arrangements for recognition using electronic means
    • G06K9/6217Design or setup of recognition systems and techniques; Extraction of features in feature space; Clustering techniques; Blind source separation
    • G06K9/6232Extracting features by transforming the feature space, e.g. multidimensional scaling; Mappings, e.g. subspace methods
    • G06K9/6251Extracting features by transforming the feature space, e.g. multidimensional scaling; Mappings, e.g. subspace methods based on a criterion of topology preservation, e.g. multidimensional scaling, self-organising maps
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06KRECOGNITION OF DATA; PRESENTATION OF DATA; RECORD CARRIERS; HANDLING RECORD CARRIERS
    • G06K9/00Methods or arrangements for reading or recognising printed or written characters or for recognising patterns, e.g. fingerprints
    • G06K9/62Methods or arrangements for recognition using electronic means
    • G06K9/6217Design or setup of recognition systems and techniques; Extraction of features in feature space; Clustering techniques; Blind source separation
    • G06K9/6232Extracting features by transforming the feature space, e.g. multidimensional scaling; Mappings, e.g. subspace methods
    • G06K9/6247Extracting features by transforming the feature space, e.g. multidimensional scaling; Mappings, e.g. subspace methods based on an approximation criterion, e.g. principal component analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G05CONTROLLING; REGULATING
    • G05BCONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
    • G05B13/00Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
    • G05B13/02Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
    • G05B13/0265Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric the criterion being a learning criterion
    • G05B13/027Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric the criterion being a learning criterion using neural networks only
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06KRECOGNITION OF DATA; PRESENTATION OF DATA; RECORD CARRIERS; HANDLING RECORD CARRIERS
    • G06K9/00Methods or arrangements for reading or recognising printed or written characters or for recognising patterns, e.g. fingerprints
    • G06K9/62Methods or arrangements for recognition using electronic means
    • G06K9/6267Classification techniques
    • G06K9/6279Classification techniques relating to the number of classes

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
Altman et al. Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)
Chang et al. A neural network with a case based dynamic window for stock trading prediction
Chang et al. A TSK type fuzzy rule based system for stock price prediction
Angelini et al. A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation
Andreou et al. Exchange-rates forecasting: A hybrid algorithm based on genetically optimized adaptive neural networks
Tung et al. Financial volatility trading using a self-organising neural-fuzzy semantic network and option straddle-based approach
Sharma et al. Artificial neural networks: Applications in management
Bekiros Heterogeneous trading strategies with adaptive fuzzy actor–critic reinforcement learning: A behavioral approach
Haryono et al. Stock price forecasting in Indonesia stock exchange using deep learning: A comparative study
Bekiros Fuzzy adaptive decision-making for boundedly rational traders in speculative stock markets
Bekiros Sign prediction and volatility dynamics with hybrid neurofuzzy approaches
Castellani et al. Forecasting long-term government bond yields: an application of statistical and AI models
Umoh et al. A fuzzfuzzy-neural intelligent trading model for stock price prediction
Shapiro et al. Intelligent and other computational techniques in insurance: theory and applications
Nayak et al. Efficient forecasting of financial time-series data with virtual adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
Jain et al. A neural network model to predict long-run operating performance of new ventures
Marwala Forecasting the stock market index using artificial intelligence techniques
Azayite et al. A hybrid neural network model based on improved PSO and SA for bankruptcy prediction
Hota et al. An empirical net asset value forecasting model based on optimised ANN using elephant herding strategy
Ruiz-Cruz et al. Investment portfolio trading based on Markov chain and fuzzy logic
Mehrdoust et al. Forecasting precious metals price based on artificial neural network trained by Lévy flight optimization algorithm
VV Forecasting GDP using ARIMA and artificial neural networks models under Indian environment
Castellani et al. Prediction of Long-Term Government Bond Yields Using Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Methods
Mutembete Credit Risk Assessment Model Using Machine Learning
Atsalaki et al. Cash withdrawals forecasting by neural networks