CN108625828B - Method and device for predicting output size of perforation blast load - Google Patents

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for predicting output size of perforation explosive load, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining factors affecting perforation explosive loading; establishing a three-dimensional physical model of the tubular column system, performing numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determining a perforation explosive load output source according to a calculation result; calculating the output size of the explosive load of the output source of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions according to factors influencing the perforation explosive load; according to the output size of the explosive load of the output source of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions, establishing a prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosive load; and predicting the output size of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions according to the output size prediction model of the perforation explosive load. The method can meet the requirements of actual conditions, predict the output size of the perforation explosive load under different perforation working conditions, greatly improve the accuracy of perforation explosive load prediction, and effectively provide theoretical basis for perforation operation design decision.

Description

Method and device for predicting output size of perforation blast load

technical field

The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas well engineering perforation, in particular to a method and a device for predicting the output size of a perforation explosion load.

Background technique

Perforation is an operation activity in which special energy-gathering equipment is used to enter the predetermined layer of the wellbore to make explosive openings to allow the fluid in the underground formation to enter the perforation. It is widely used in oil and gas fields and coal fields. The purpose of perforating operation is to form a passage between the wellbore and the oil and gas layer, which is a key link in the development of oil and gas fields. When the perforating charge explodes to form a jet, some detonation waves will be released into the long and narrow space of the wellbore to form dynamic shock loads. On the one hand, it directly acts on the barrel, and transfers this part of the load through the barrel to other string structures such as shock absorbers, oil pipes, screens, packers, etc. connected to it, causing strong shock and vibration of the string system; on the other hand On the one hand, the impact load will cause the liquid pressure in the outer ring of the pipe string to change drastically in a short period of time, which will propagate in the perforating fluid in the form of shock waves, which will instantly cause large deformation of the liquid in the well and high-speed violent movement, which will affect the structural stability of the entire pipe string system. properties and local structural strength. In recent years, with the widespread application of high-density perforators and high-power perforating charges in on-site perforation, the explosion load on the perforating section of the pipe string has increased significantly, which is likely to cause pipe string instability, buckling fractures, and packer solutions. The occurrence of accidents such as sealing, especially for the combined perforation test technology developed in recent years, makes these problems more prominent. Therefore, how to accurately predict the explosion load output under different perforating conditions has always been the focus of the perforating industry, which is of great significance to ensuring the safety of on-site perforating operations.

At present, there are roughly two methods for predicting the output size of perforation explosion load in China. One is the experience summarization method, that is, the method of predicting the output size of the explosion load in the future perforation operation based on the test data of the perforated wells. Method When the perforation conditions change, the prediction accuracy is extremely low; another method is to apply theoretical formulas for analysis. In this method, the physical model cannot be designed according to the actual situation required, and it is too simple to guarantee the accuracy of the calculation results. accuracy.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load, so as to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the output size of the explosion load, the method includes:

Determine the factors that affect the perforation blast load;

Establish a three-dimensional physical model of the pipe string system, carry out numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determine the output source of the perforation explosion load according to the calculation results;

According to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load, calculate the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions;

According to the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions, a prediction model of the perforation explosion load output size is established;

According to the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load, the output size of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions is predicted.

The embodiment of the present invention also provides a device for predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load, so as to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the output size of the explosion load, the device includes:

A factor determination module for determining the factors that affect the perforation blast load;

The source determination module is used to establish a three-dimensional physical model of the pipe string system, perform numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determine the output source of the perforation explosion load according to the calculation results;

The load output calculation module is used to calculate the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions according to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load;

The model building module is used to establish a prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load according to the explosion load output size of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions;

The load prediction module is used to predict the output size of the perforation explosion load according to the model, and predict the output size of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions.

An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor, the processor implementing the computer program to achieve predicted perforation blast load output size method.

Embodiments of the present invention further provide a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method for predicting the output size of a perforating blast load.

In the embodiment of the present invention, the factors affecting the perforation explosion load and the output source of the perforation explosion load are first determined, then the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions is calculated, and finally the explosion load output according to different working conditions is calculated. According to the explosion load output size of the source, a prediction model of the perforation explosion load size is established, and the output size of the perforation explosion load under different perforating conditions is predicted according to the prediction model of the perforation explosion load size. The embodiment of the present invention can predict the output size of the explosion load under different perforating conditions according to the needs of the actual situation, greatly improves the accuracy of the prediction of the output size of the perforation explosion load, and further provides a solid theoretical basis for the design decision of the perforation operation .

Description of drawings

In order to explain the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art more clearly, the following briefly introduces the accompanying drawings that need to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description are only These are some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can also be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts. In the attached image:

Fig. 1 is the physical model schematic diagram of the pipe string system in the embodiment of the present invention;

2 is a schematic flowchart of a method for predicting the output size of a perforation explosion load in an embodiment of the present invention;

3 is a schematic flowchart of determining the output source of the perforation explosion load in the embodiment of the present invention;

4 is a schematic flowchart of establishing a perforation explosion load output size prediction model in an embodiment of the present invention;

5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for predicting the output size of a perforation explosion load in an embodiment of the present invention;

6 is a schematic structural diagram of a source determination module in an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of a model building module in an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed ways

In order to make the purposes, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly understood, the embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Here, the exemplary embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention, but not to limit the present invention.

Before predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load, firstly, based on the actual situation of the perforation, the perforating pipe string system should be reasonably simplified, and then the prediction should be made according to the simplified pipe string system. The simplified method of the string system is as follows:

When the on-site perforation test is combined, as shown in Figure 1, a pressure-initiated test string is generally used. It is composed of pipe joints), packers, shock absorbers, oil pipes, anti-sand buffer devices, pressure delay ignition heads, perforating guns, etc. Among them, the wall thickness of the ignition head, joint and shock absorber is larger, and the yield strength is higher, while the yield strength of the tubing string and the center rod of the packer is lower, and the overall buckling and fracture are most likely to occur. In the actual perforation operation, the length of the perforation string is different under different well conditions, which may range from tens of meters to thousands of meters. There are different components on the perforation string. The analysis must be simplified. According to the specification of on-site perforating test joint production process and supporting tools, without affecting the simulation results, the structure of the deep-water test string is reasonably simplified (including perforating charges, perforating guns, screens, shock absorbers, Tubing, packer, casing, etc.), the simplified model mainly includes perforating gun, tubing and casing. The remaining space in the perforating gun except the perforating charges is filled with air, while the tubing and casing annulus are filled with perforating guns. Pore fluid. The upper end of the perforation string in the wellbore is restricted by the packer, and the surrounding area is restricted by the casing.

As shown in FIG. 2 , an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting the output size of a perforation explosion load, so as to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the output size of the explosion load, the method includes:

101: Determine the factors that affect the perforation explosion load;

102: Establish a three-dimensional physical model of the pipe string system, perform numerical simulation calculations on the three-dimensional physical model, and determine the output source of the perforation explosion load according to the calculation results;

103: Calculate the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions according to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load;

104: According to the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions, establish a prediction model of the perforation explosion load output size;

105: According to the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load, predict the output size of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions.

In one embodiment, in the above step 101, there may be various implementations for determining the factors affecting the blasting load of the perforation. For example, factors affecting perforating blast loads can be determined from empirical models of perforating charge blasts. In implementation, the factors affecting the perforation explosion load can be determined according to the following formula:

表示射孔爆炸后留在井液中的能量的比例系数。Among them: ΔP is the well fluid pressure caused by the perforation explosion; P ₊ is the well fluid pressure after the perforation explosion; P ₀ is the initial well fluid pressure before the perforation explosion; ρ is the perforation density, holes/m; L is the length of the perforating gun, m; V is the effective volume of the perforation section, m ³ ; n is the charge per shot, g; N is the molar mass of the explosive, g/mol; H is the detonation heat, kJ/mol; δ is the The gas specific heat rate of the well fluid;

A scaling factor representing the energy left in the well fluid after a perforation explosion.

In the implementation, through the calculation of the above formula, the influence of each factor is analyzed. According to the analysis results, it can be seen that the number of perforating charges, the amount of single charge, the length of the pipe string and the wellbore pressure are the factors that affect the output of the perforation explosion load.

In one embodiment, in the above step 102, there may be various implementations for determining the output source of the perforation explosion load. For example, as shown in Figure 3, the source of the perforation blast load output can be determined as follows:

201: Establish a 3D physical model of the pipe string system, and perform hexahedral mesh division on the 3D physical model;

202: Select multiple reference points in the three-dimensional physical model according to the load characteristics of the key position of the pipe string system;

203: Numerical simulation calculation is performed on multiple reference points in the divided three-dimensional physical model;

204: Determine the output source of the perforation blast load in multiple reference points according to the numerical simulation calculation results.

In the implementation, emphasis should be placed on the refinement of the model mesh (the common nodes in the fluid region), the setting of material parameters, and the selection of the state equation. At the same time, the accurate application of boundary constraints and the use of fluid-structure coupling settings should be considered to jointly ensure the accuracy of simulation calculations and the rationality.

In one embodiment, in the above step 201, based on the simplified pipe string system, ANSYS WORKBENCH may be used to initially establish a 3D physical model, and then HYPERMESH may be used to perform hexahedral mesh division on the initially established 3D physical model.

In one embodiment, in the above step 204, based on the calculation result of the numerical simulation, it can be determined that the bottom of the perforating gun is the output source of the perforating explosion load.

In one embodiment, in the above step 103, according to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load, the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions is calculated, and there may be various implementations. For example, several sets of finite element simulation models can be established according to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load; the numerical simulation calculation of several sets of finite element simulation models can be carried out to obtain the explosion load output size of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions. In the implementation, the control variable method can be used to establish several sets of finite element simulation models with different numbers of perforating charges for the 5in and 7in perforating guns. When performing numerical simulation calculations, a large number of numerical simulation calculations can be carried out using ANSYS/LS-DYNA.

In one embodiment, in the above step 104, a prediction model for the output size of the perforation explosion load is established, and there may be various implementations. For example, as shown in Figure 4, a prediction model for the output size of the perforation blast load can be established as follows:

301: Obtain the peak pressure data of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions according to the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source;

302: Perform multivariate nonlinear regression on the peak pressure data of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions, and obtain the peak pressure empirical model of the output source of the perforation explosion load by fitting;

303: Determine the peak pressure empirical model of the output source of the perforation explosion load as the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load.

In one embodiment, in the above step 301, the peak pressure data of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions can be obtained, and there may be various implementations. For example, based on the blast load output size data of the perforation blast load output source under different working conditions, the post-processing software LS-PERPOST can be used to extract the peak pressure data of the perforation blast load output source under different working conditions, and establish a database.

In one embodiment, in the above step 302, multivariate nonlinear regression is performed on the peak pressure data of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions, and the peak pressure empirical model of the output source of the perforation explosion load obtained by fitting can be implemented in various ways. Program. For example, multiple nonlinear regression can be performed on the data using MATLAB software. In implementation, for the 5in and 7in perforating gun models, based on the peak pressure database of different working conditions, such as the number of perforating charges, single charge, tubing length, formation pressure and wellbore pressure, the empirical model can be analyzed as a A nonlinear equation containing five unknowns, then the perforation-related parameters that affect the load output function can include: the number of perforating charges, the amount of charge per shot, the length of the tubing, the wellbore pressure and the formation pressure. The basic expression of the nonlinear equation The form is as follows:

P=f(x ₁ ,x ₂ ,x ₃ ,x ₄ ,x ₅ );

Among them, P is the peak pressure of the output source of the perforation explosion load; x ₁ is the number of perforating charges, piece; x ₂ is the single shot charge, g; x ₃ is the formation pressure, MPa; x ₄ is the wellbore pressure, MPa ; x ₅ is the length of the tubing, m.

In one embodiment, in the above step 105, according to the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load, there may be various implementations for predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load under different perforating conditions. For example, it can be calculated as follows:

Among them, _PL is the output size of the perforation explosion load; x ₁ is the number of perforating charges, piece; x ₂ is the single shot charge, g; x ₃ is the formation pressure, MPa; x ₄ is the wellbore pressure, MPa; x ₅ is the length of the tubing, m; k, a, b, and c are the correlation coefficients.

In one implementation, as shown in Table 1, according to the different perforating guns (7in or 5in), the values of the correlation coefficients of k, a, b, and c are also different:

k a b c 5in 1.82 0.185 0.13 0.14 7in 1.87 0.212 0.134 0.165

Table 1

In the implementation, due to the different values of the correlation coefficients k, a, b, and c, the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load of the 5in perforating gun can be as follows:

Among them, _PL ' is the output size of the perforation explosion load when using a 5in perforating gun; x ₁ is the number of perforating charges, piece; x ₂ is the single charge, g; x ₃ is the formation pressure, MPa; x ₄ is the wellbore pressure, MPa; x ₅ is the length of the tubing, m.

The prediction model of the output size of the explosion load of the 7in perforating gun can be:

Among them, P _L ” is the output size of the perforation explosion load when using a 7in perforating gun; x ₁ is the number of perforating charges, piece; x ₂ is the single-shot charge, g; x ₃ is the formation pressure, MPa; x ₄ is the wellbore pressure, MPa; x ₅ is the length of the tubing, m.

Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention also provides a device for predicting the output size of a perforation explosion load, as described in the following embodiments. Since the problem-solving principle of the device for predicting the output size of perforation explosion is similar to the method for predicting the output size of perforating explosion load, the implementation of the device for predicting the output size of perforating explosion load can refer to the method for predicting the output size of perforating explosion load. Implementation, the repetition will not be repeated.

FIG. 5 is a device for predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load in an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Figure 5, the device for predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load in the embodiment of the present invention includes:

The factor determination module 401 is used to determine the factors affecting the blasting load of the perforation;

The source determination module 402 is used to establish a three-dimensional physical model of the pipe string system, perform numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determine the output source of the perforation explosion load according to the analysis result;

The load output calculation module 403 is used to calculate the explosion load output size of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions according to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load;

The model building module 404 is configured to establish a prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load according to the explosion load output size of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions;

The load prediction module 405 is used for predicting the output size of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions according to the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosion load.

In one embodiment, the factor determination module 401 is further configured to determine the factors affecting the perforation blast load according to the following formula:

表示射孔爆炸后留在井液中的能量的比例系数。Among them: ΔP is the well fluid pressure caused by the perforation explosion; P ₊ is the well fluid pressure after the perforation explosion; P ₀ is the initial well fluid pressure before the perforation explosion; ρ is the perforation density, holes/m; L is the length of the perforating gun, m; V is the effective volume of the perforation section, m ³ ; n is the charge per shot, g; N is the molar mass of the explosive, g/mol; H is the detonation heat, kJ/mol; δ is the The gas specific heat rate of the well fluid;

A scaling factor representing the energy left in the well fluid after a perforation explosion.

In one embodiment, as shown in FIG. 6 , the source determination module 402 includes:

The division module 501 is used to establish a three-dimensional physical model of the pipe string system, and perform hexahedral mesh division on the three-dimensional physical model;

The reference point selection module 502 is used to select a plurality of reference points in the three-dimensional physical model according to the key position load characteristics of the pipe string system;

An analysis module 503, configured to perform numerical simulation calculation on a plurality of reference points in the divided three-dimensional physical model;

The determining module 504 is configured to determine the output source of the perforation explosion load in a plurality of reference points according to the calculation result of the numerical simulation.

In one embodiment, the load output calculation module 403 is further configured to:

According to the factors affecting the perforation explosion load, several sets of finite element simulation models are established;

Numerical simulation calculation was carried out on several sets of finite element simulation models, and the explosion load output of the perforation explosion load output source under different working conditions was obtained.

In one embodiment, as shown in FIG. 7 , the model building module 404 includes:

The peak pressure obtaining module 601 is used for obtaining the peak pressure data of the explosion load output source under different working conditions according to the blast load output of the blast load output source under different working conditions;

The empirical model fitting module 602 is used for performing multivariate nonlinear regression on the peak pressure data of the explosion load output source under different working conditions, and fitting to obtain the peak pressure empirical model of the explosion load output source;

The prediction model determination module 603 is configured to determine the peak pressure empirical model of the explosion load output source as the explosion load magnitude prediction model.

In one embodiment, the load prediction module 403 calculates according to the following formula:

Among them, _PL is the output size of the perforation explosion load; x ₁ is the number of perforating charges, piece; x ₂ is the single shot charge, g; x ₃ is the formation pressure, MPa; x ₄ is the wellbore pressure, MPa; x ₅ is the length of the tubing, m; k, a, b, and c are the correlation coefficients.

An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor, the processor implementing the computer program to achieve predicted perforation blast load output size method.

Embodiments of the present invention further provide a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method for predicting the output size of a perforating blast load.

To sum up, in the embodiment of the present invention, the factors affecting the perforation explosion load and the output source of the perforation explosion load are first determined, then the explosion load output size of the output source of the perforation explosion load under different working conditions is calculated, and finally according to different working conditions According to the explosion load output size of the explosion load output source under different perforation conditions, a prediction model of the perforation explosion load size is established, and the perforation explosion load output size under different perforation conditions is predicted according to the prediction model of the perforation explosion load size. The embodiment of the present invention can predict the output size of the explosion load under different perforating conditions according to the needs of the actual situation, greatly improves the accuracy of the prediction of the output size of the perforation explosion load, and further provides a solid theoretical basis for the design decision of the perforation operation .

As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.

The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to the processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine such that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device produce Means for implementing the functions specified in a flow or flow of a flowchart and/or a block or blocks of a block diagram.

These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory result in an article of manufacture comprising instruction means, the instructions The apparatus implements the functions specified in the flow or flow of the flowcharts and/or the block or blocks of the block diagrams.

These computer program instructions can also be loaded on a computer or other programmable data processing device to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process such that The instructions provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flow or blocks of the flowcharts and/or the block or blocks of the block diagrams.

The specific embodiments described above further describe the purpose, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail. It should be understood that the above-mentioned specific embodiments are only specific embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A method of predicting a magnitude of a perforating detonation load output, comprising:

determining factors affecting perforation explosive loading;

establishing a three-dimensional physical model of the tubular column system, performing numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determining a perforation explosive load output source according to a calculation result;

calculating the output size of the explosive load of the output source of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions according to factors influencing the perforation explosive load;

according to the output size of the explosive load of the output source of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions, establishing a prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosive load;

and predicting the output size of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions according to the output size prediction model of the perforation explosive load.

2. The method of predicting the magnitude of perforation detonation load output of claim 1, wherein the factors affecting the perforation detonation load are determined according to the following equation:

wherein: delta P is the well fluid change pressure caused by perforation explosion; p₊The well fluid pressure after perforation explosion; p₀The initial well fluid pressure before perforation explosion; rho is perforation density, hole/m; l is the length of the perforating gun, m; v is the effective volume of the perforation section, m³(ii) a n is the single shot charge, g; n is the molar mass of the explosive, g/mol; h is explosion heat, kJ/mol; is the gas specific heat rate of the well fluid;

representing the proportionality coefficient of the energy remaining in the well fluid after the perforation detonation.

3. The method for predicting the output size of the perforation explosive load according to claim 2, wherein the steps of establishing a three-dimensional physical model of the tubular column system, performing numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determining the output source of the perforation explosive load according to the calculation result comprise:

establishing a three-dimensional physical model of the tubular column system, and carrying out hexahedral mesh division on the three-dimensional physical model;

selecting a plurality of reference points in the three-dimensional physical model according to the load characteristics of the key positions of the tubular column system;

performing numerical simulation calculation on a plurality of reference points in the divided three-dimensional physical model;

and determining a perforation explosive load output source in a plurality of reference points according to the numerical simulation calculation result.

4. The method for predicting the output magnitude of perforation explosive load according to claim 3, wherein the step of calculating the output magnitude of explosive load of the output source of perforation explosive load under different working conditions according to the factors influencing the perforation explosive load comprises the following steps:

establishing a plurality of sets of finite element simulation models according to factors influencing perforation explosive loads;

and carrying out numerical simulation calculation on the plurality of sets of finite element simulation models to obtain the output size of the explosive load of the perforation explosive load output source under different working conditions.

5. The method for predicting the output magnitude of perforation explosive load according to claim 4, wherein the step of establishing a prediction model of the output magnitude of perforation explosive load according to the output magnitude of explosive load of an output source of perforation explosive load under different working conditions comprises the following steps:

according to the output size of the explosive load of the output source of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions, obtaining peak pressure data of the output source of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions;

performing multivariate nonlinear regression on the peak pressure data of the perforating explosive load output source under different working conditions, and fitting to obtain a peak pressure empirical model of the perforating explosive load output source;

and determining the empirical model of the peak pressure of the output source of the perforation explosive load as a prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosive load.

6. The method for predicting the output size of the perforation explosive load according to any one of the claims 1 to 5, wherein the output size of the perforation explosive load under different perforation conditions is predicted according to the prediction model of the output size of the perforation explosive load, and is calculated according to the following formula:

wherein, P_LOutputting the size of the perforation explosive load; x is the number of₁The number of the perforating bullets is one; x is the number of₂G is the single hair charge; x is the number of₃Is the formation pressure, MPa; x is the number of₄Is the wellbore pressure, MPa; x is the number of₅Is the length of the oil pipe, m; k. a, b and c are correlation coefficients.

7. An apparatus for predicting the magnitude of a perforating detonation load output, comprising:

the factor determining module is used for determining factors influencing perforation explosive load;

the source determining module is used for establishing a three-dimensional physical model of the tubular column system, performing numerical simulation calculation on the three-dimensional physical model, and determining a perforation explosive load output source according to a calculation result;

the load output calculation module is used for calculating the output size of the explosive load of the perforation explosive load output source under different working conditions according to factors influencing the perforation explosive load;

the model establishing module is used for establishing a perforating explosive load output size prediction model according to the explosive load output size of the perforating explosive load output source under different working conditions;

and the load prediction module is used for predicting the output size of the perforation explosive load under different working conditions according to the output size prediction model of the perforation explosive load.

8. The apparatus for predicting the magnitude of perforating explosive load output of claim 7, wherein said source determination module comprises:

the dividing module is used for establishing a three-dimensional physical model of the tubular column system and carrying out hexahedral mesh division on the three-dimensional physical model;

the reference point selection module is used for selecting a plurality of reference points in the three-dimensional physical model according to the key position load characteristics of the tubular column system;

the analysis module is used for carrying out numerical simulation calculation on a plurality of reference points in the divided three-dimensional physical model;

the determining module is used for determining a perforation explosive load output source in a plurality of reference points according to the numerical simulation calculation result;

the load output calculation module is further to:

establishing a plurality of sets of finite element simulation models according to factors influencing perforation explosive loads;

carrying out numerical simulation calculation on the plurality of sets of finite element simulation models to obtain explosive load output of a perforation explosive load output source under different working conditions;

the model building module comprises:

the peak pressure acquisition module is used for acquiring peak pressure data of the explosive load output source under different working conditions according to the explosive load output of the explosive load output source under different working conditions;

the empirical model fitting module is used for performing multivariate nonlinear regression on the peak pressure data of the explosive load output source under different working conditions, and fitting to obtain a peak pressure empirical model of the explosive load output source;

and the prediction model determining module is used for determining the peak pressure empirical model of the explosive load output source as the explosive load size prediction model.

9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method of any one of claims 1 to 6 when executing the computer program.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.

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