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CN103886507B - Emergency preplan digitizes generation method - Google Patents

Emergency preplan digitizes generation method Download PDF

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CN103886507B
CN103886507B CN201310752783.4A CN201310752783A CN103886507B CN 103886507 B CN103886507 B CN 103886507B CN 201310752783 A CN201310752783 A CN 201310752783A CN 103886507 B CN103886507 B CN 103886507B
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emergency
dimension
plan
event
attribute
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CN103886507A (en
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王子洋
杜渺
秦勇
贾利民
赵忠信
钟玲玲
朱婕
于鸿飞
李倩
李文宇
朱鹏
刘利忠
刘瑜
梁平
王金利
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Beijing Jiaotong University
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Abstract

本发明涉及铁路系统应急预案建设技术领域的一种应急预案数字化生成方法。首先将原有应急预案分解生成数字化应急预案库;根据突发事件的类型、等级等生成该事件下应急预案的信息维度;再匹配,选择出相似度最高的预案的过程维度信息生成初步处置流程;采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证、修订,得到更为合理的处置流程;对突发事件进行处置,直至事件处理结束。如果应急事件扩大,则更新事件信息维度,循环执行上述流程直到处置结束。处理结束后,完善其他维度信息,形成新的数字化处置预案存入应急预案库,以便以后使用。本发明可以给突发事件的应急处置提供快速、准确的、直接性的参考,使突发事件的损失降到最低。

The invention relates to a method for digitally generating an emergency plan in the technical field of railway system emergency plan construction. Firstly, the original emergency plan is decomposed to generate a digital emergency plan library; the information dimension of the emergency plan is generated according to the type and level of the emergency; after matching, the process dimension information of the plan with the highest similarity is selected to generate a preliminary disposal process ; Use the correct route matching strategy from the initial scene to the end scene to verify and revise the correctness to obtain a more reasonable handling process; deal with emergencies until the end of the event handling. If the emergency event expands, update the event information dimension, and execute the above process in a loop until the disposal ends. After the processing is completed, other dimensional information is improved to form a new digital disposal plan and store it in the emergency plan library for future use. The invention can provide fast, accurate and direct reference for emergency handling of emergencies, and minimize the loss of emergencies.

Description

应急预案数字化生成方法Digital generation method of emergency plan

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及应急预案数字化生成方法,尤其涉及铁路系统的应急预案以及应急处置流程数字化的方法,属于铁路系统应急预案建设技术领域。The invention relates to a method for digitally generating an emergency plan, in particular to a method for digitizing an emergency plan of a railway system and an emergency disposal process, and belongs to the technical field of construction of an emergency plan for a railway system.

背景技术Background technique

目前,我国铁路部门建立起了铁道部、路局、站段三级应急管理体系,针对常见的突发事件,都已有了较为完备的应急预案。然而目前的预案都是以文本的形式存在,利用效率低,不能满足突发事件的处置快速准确的要求,因此应急预案的数字化必将成为其发展方向。At present, my country's railway department has established a three-level emergency management system for the Ministry of Railways, the Railway Bureau, and the station section, and has relatively complete emergency plans for common emergencies. However, the current plans exist in the form of text, and the utilization efficiency is low, which cannot meet the requirements of fast and accurate handling of emergencies. Therefore, the digitization of emergency plans will definitely become its development direction.

我国对于数字化应急预案的流程分析,建模研究较少,这也是应急管理中的薄弱环节,可以说,目前我国数字化应急预案研究尤其是铁路系统数字化应急预案,依旧处于一种原始的、启蒙的状态。In my country, there are few modeling studies on the process analysis of digital emergency plans, which is also a weak link in emergency management. It can be said that the current research on digital emergency plans in my country, especially the digital emergency plans of railway systems, is still in a primitive and enlightening stage. state.

发明内容Contents of the invention

本发明的目的是针对目前应急预案流程分析、数字化建模技术的不足,提出了一种应急预案数字化生成方法。The purpose of the present invention is to propose a digital generation method for emergency plans in view of the shortcomings of the current emergency plan flow analysis and digital modeling technology.

一种应急预案数字化生成方法,该方法包括以下步骤:A method for digitally generating an emergency plan, the method comprising the following steps:

步骤1:将原有预案分解生成数字化应急预案库;Step 1: Decompose the original plan to generate a digital emergency plan library;

步骤2:当有突发事件时,根据突发事件,生成其应急预案的信息维度Step 2: When there is an emergency, generate the information dimension of the emergency plan according to the emergency

步骤3:将突发事件生成的信息维度与预案库中信息维度中相关目标的内容进行匹配,选择出相似度最高的预案;Step 3: Match the information dimension generated by the emergency with the content of the relevant target in the information dimension in the plan database, and select the plan with the highest similarity;

步骤4:根据相似度最高的预案,提取相似度最高的预案的过程维度信息生成初步处置流程;Step 4: According to the plan with the highest similarity, extract the process dimension information of the plan with the highest similarity to generate a preliminary treatment process;

步骤5:对生成的处置流程采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证,并对不合法或错误的流程进行修订,得到合理的处置流程;Step 5: Verify the correctness of the generated disposal process using the correct route matching strategy from the initial scene to the end scene, and revise the illegal or wrong process to obtain a reasonable disposal process;

步骤6:根据步骤5得到的应急处置流程,对突发事件进行处置,处置结束;当事故的现场有新突发事件情况时,转步骤2,从而循环执行上述流程直到处置结束。Step 6: According to the emergency treatment process obtained in step 5, deal with the emergency, and the treatment is over; when there is a new emergency at the scene of the accident, go to step 2, so as to execute the above process cyclically until the treatment is over.

步骤7:在处置结束后,将步骤6所述应急处置流程即过程维度完善其他维度信息,形成新的数字化处置预案存入预案库,以便以后使用。Step 7: After the disposal is completed, the emergency disposal process described in step 6, that is, the process dimension, is used to improve information in other dimensions to form a new digital disposal plan and store it in the plan library for future use.

所述将原有应急预案分解生成数字化应急预案库方法如下:The method of decomposing the original emergency plan to generate a digital emergency plan library is as follows:

将原有的文本式的应急预案分解,形成包括信息维度、组织维度、资源维度、功能维度、过程维度在内的5个维度的数字化预案;Decompose the original text-based emergency plan to form a five-dimensional digital plan including information dimension, organization dimension, resource dimension, function dimension, and process dimension;

所述信息维度包括两部分:一是该应急预案的基本信息,包括编制部门、编制时间、版本号;二是该应急预案对应的突发事件的信息,包括事件类型,事件等级、伤亡情况;The information dimension includes two parts: one is the basic information of the emergency plan, including the compilation department, compilation time, and version number; the other is the information of the emergency corresponding to the emergency plan, including the event type, event level, and casualties;

组织维度,是该单位的工作人员的信息数据;The organizational dimension is the information data of the staff of the unit;

资源维度,是从资源配置的角度对应急过程进行描述的信息数据;The resource dimension is the information data that describes the emergency process from the perspective of resource allocation;

过程维度是预案中的关键维度,由应急处置过程中的一系列子任务构成,这些子任务作为可以直接执行的抽象实体,自身又包含属性:名称、功能、目标、执行人员、使用资源、时限、开始条件、结束条件中的一个或多个;过程维度研究就是将这些任务按其约束关系,组织成为有一定层级结构的过程;The process dimension is the key dimension in the contingency plan. It consists of a series of subtasks in the emergency response process. These subtasks are abstract entities that can be directly executed, and they themselves contain attributes: name, function, goal, executor, resource use, and time limit One or more of , start condition, and end condition; process dimension research is to organize these tasks into a process with a certain hierarchical structure according to their constraint relationship;

功能维度从各应急组织或者部门的功能职责角度对应急处置流程进行描述,补充了组织维度和过程维度仅对应急组织分级和任务步骤流程关注的局限,增加了组织功能、任务目标与流程步骤之间的关联,辅助应急预案形式化;The functional dimension describes the emergency response process from the perspective of the functional responsibilities of each emergency organization or department, supplements the limitations of the organizational dimension and process dimension that only focus on emergency organization classification and task steps, and increases the relationship between organizational functions, task objectives, and process steps. The connection between them, assisting the formalization of the emergency plan;

每个分解后的预案即可以数字化的形式存储,尽可能多的将文本预案转化成这种形式从而得到覆盖面较全的数字化应急预案库。Each decomposed plan can be stored in a digital form, and as many text plans as possible can be converted into this form to obtain a digital emergency plan library with a relatively complete coverage.

所述将根据突发事件生成的信息维度与应急预案数字化库中信息维度中相关目标的内容进行匹配方法如下:The method for matching the information dimension generated according to the emergency with the content of the relevant target in the information dimension in the emergency plan digital library is as follows:

假设目标事件α与事件β进行匹配,α和β分别使由m个属性进行描述α={a1,a2,a3...am},β={b1,b2,b3...bm}与各属性的权重分别为wi,i=1,2,3,4...m,则α和β之间相似度SIM(α,β)的计算方法表示如下:Assuming that the target event α is matched with the event β, α and β are respectively described by m attributes α={a 1 ,a 2 ,a 3 ...a m }, β={b 1 ,b 2 ,b 3 ...b m } and the weights of each attribute are w i , i=1, 2, 3, 4...m, then the calculation method of the similarity SIM(α, β) between α and β is expressed as follows:

其中,ωα,β表示α和β的结构相似度,它描述了缺失的属性数据对于事件间相似度计算的影响,1- α,β表示了案例α和β间属性的可替代程度,sim(ai,bi)表示案例α和β的在属性i上的局部相似度;Among them, ω α, β represents the structural similarity between α and β, which describes the impact of missing attribute data on the similarity calculation between events, 1- α, β represent the substitutable degree of attributes between case α and β, and sim(a i , b i ) represents the local similarity of case α and β on attribute i;

事件α与事件β的事件全局相似度SIM(α,β)和属性的局部相似度sim(ai,bi)的取值范围均为[0,1],取值越高表示相似程度越高;The event global similarity SIM(α,β) of event α and event β and the local similarity sim(a i , bi ) of the attribute both range from [0,1]. The higher the value, the greater the similarity. high;

1)相似度的计算1) Calculation of similarity

目标事件α和事件β结构相似度的计算过程如下:The calculation process of the structural similarity between target event α and event β is as follows:

假设目标事件所有非空属性组成的集合为A0,源事件非空属性组成的集合为A1;计算为A0与A1的交集记为I,并集记为U;分别计算集合I与U中所有属性的权重之和分别记为ωI和ωU,则α和β的结构相似度的定义为:Assume that the set composed of all non-empty attributes of the target event is A 0 , and the set composed of non-empty attributes of the source event is A 1 ; the intersection of A 0 and A 1 is calculated as I, and the union is recorded as U; respectively calculate the sets I and The sum of the weights of all attributes in U is recorded as ω I and ω U respectively, then the definition of the structural similarity of α and β is:

2)属性局部相似度的计算2) Calculation of attribute local similarity

属性局部相似性指事件在各属性上的相似性,突发事件属性类型一般包括符号型、数值型,根据不同数据类型规定相应的属性局部相似性度量。The local similarity of attributes refers to the similarity of events in each attribute. The types of emergency event attributes generally include symbolic and numerical types, and the corresponding local similarity measures of attributes are specified according to different data types.

符号型属性相似度算法:符号型数据属于一种简单的枚举值,它列举了该属性所有可能的取值。他们的相似度计算如下:Symbolic attribute similarity algorithm: symbolic data is a simple enumeration value, which lists all possible values of the attribute. Their similarity is calculated as follows:

其中ai,bi表示目标事件α和β在属性i上的取值。Among them, a i and b i represent the values of target events α and β on attribute i.

确定数型属性相似度算法:这里采用基于海明距离公式演化来的相似度方法,计算如下:Determine the numerical attribute similarity algorithm: Here, the similarity method based on the evolution of the Hamming distance formula is used, and the calculation is as follows:

其中ai,bi表示α和β在属性i上的取值,maxi和mini表示属性i的最大值和最小值;Where a i and b i represent the values of α and β on attribute i, max i and min i represent the maximum and minimum values of attribute i;

对于每个确定数型的属性在计算相似度时都需要事先确定其取值范围;For each attribute with a certain number type, its value range needs to be determined in advance when calculating the similarity;

3)目标事件α和事件β属性间的差异程度 α,β的计算3) Degree of difference between target event α and event β attributes Calculation of α, β

由于属性之间往往不能相互替代,这里引入了“变异指标”来对属性之间的可替代性进行量化;变异指标反映的是总体中各单位间的差异程度,差异程度越大就越难以被代替;其计算方法如下:Since attributes are often not substitutable for each other, a "variation index" is introduced here to quantify the substitutability between attributes; the variation index reflects the degree of difference between units in the population, and the greater the degree of difference, the more difficult it is to be identified. instead; it is calculated as follows:

其中,为事件α和事件β各属性相似度的平均值,σα,β为事件α和事件β各属性相似度值的方差。in, is the average value of the similarity of each attribute of event α and event β, and σ α,β is the variance of the similarity value of each attribute of event α and event β.

4)事件特征属性权重的计算4) Calculation of event characteristic attribute weight

这里采用属性层次模型(Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM)来对事件各特征属性的权重值进行计算;Here, the attribute hierarchical model (Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM) is used to calculate the weight value of each characteristic attribute of the event;

所述属性层次模型(Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM)事先需要根据调研确定事件特征属性作为索引,然后根据表1所示的方式对各个属性间的相对重要性进行打分评定;The Attribute Hierarchical Model (Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM) needs to determine the event feature attribute as an index according to the investigation in advance, and then score and evaluate the relative importance between each attribute according to the method shown in Table 1;

表1属性间的重要度评定Table 1 Importance evaluation among attributes

在得到属性ai和aj的相对重要度关系aij后,通过公式(7)对属性间的转移重要度uij进行计算,uij是属性ai对属性aj的转移重要度;其中,i=1,2,3,...,m;j=1,2,3...,m.;After obtaining the relative importance relationship a ij of attributes a i and a j , the transfer importance u ij between attributes is calculated by formula (7), where u ij is the transfer importance of attribute a i to attribute a j ; where , i=1,2,3,...,m; j=1,2,3...,m.;

之后利用公式(8)对属性的转移重要度进行计算,得到最终的各个属性的权重wjThen use the formula (8) to calculate the transfer importance of attributes to get the final weight w j of each attribute:

其中,n为事件C所包含的属性个数;Among them, n is the number of attributes contained in event C;

匹配结束后会得到一匹配集,这里匹配集可能为空,也可能存储唯一的应急预案,也可能存在多个应急预案;如果存在多个应急预案,则以列表的形式将应急预案对应的应急处置流程按照匹配程度倒序展示出来,由应急处置相关人员选择最优解;如果匹配集为空,则调整维度信息,删减部分属性特征,重新进行匹配,直到匹配集不为空After the matching is completed, a matching set will be obtained. Here, the matching set may be empty, or a unique emergency plan may be stored, or there may be multiple emergency plans; if there are multiple emergency plans, the emergency plan corresponding to the emergency plan shall be listed. The disposal process is displayed in reverse order according to the matching degree, and the relevant emergency response personnel select the optimal solution; if the matching set is empty, adjust the dimension information, delete some attribute characteristics, and re-match until the matching set is not empty

所述提取相匹配的原有预案的过程维度信息初步生成处置流程,数字化应急预案中的过程维度中存储的信息即应急处置流程信息,因此直接提取匹配度最高的应急预案中的过程维度,即可得到该事件下的处置流程。The process dimension information of the matching original plan is extracted to initially generate a disposal process. The information stored in the process dimension in the digital emergency plan is the emergency disposal process information. Therefore, the process dimension in the emergency plan with the highest matching degree is directly extracted, namely The handling process under this event can be obtained.

所述采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证方法为::The correctness verification method using the correct route matching strategy from the initial scene to the end scene is as follows:

数字化应急预案模型中的每个应急处置流程单元,都看作是一个场景,因此具有isStartScenario(是初始场景),isEndScenario(是结束场景),hasNextScenario(具有下一场景),hasPreScenario(具有前一场景)特性,检验应急处置路程的正确性即可转化为检验各个场景的顺序或并发约束关系;Each emergency handling process unit in the digital emergency plan model is regarded as a scenario, so it has isStartScenario (is the initial scenario), isEndScenario (is the end scenario), hasNextScenario (has the next scenario), hasPreScenario (has the previous scenario ) characteristics, and checking the correctness of the emergency handling route can be transformed into checking the sequence or concurrency constraints of each scene;

若生成的应急处置流程单元场景具有下面情况中的任意一中,则该流程错误:If the generated emergency handling process unit scenario has any of the following conditions, the process is wrong:

(1)缺少初始场景或者结束场景;(1) Lack of initial scene or ending scene;

(2)没有到达结束场景;(2) Did not reach the end scene;

(3)能到达结束场景,但有场景被遗漏;(3) The end scene can be reached, but some scenes are missed;

(4)各场景间的约束关系不正确。(4) The constraint relationship between each scene is incorrect.

所述将步骤6所述应急处置流程即过程维度完善其他维度信息为在已经得到应急处置流程即过程维度基础上,根据突发事件性质、处置情况补充完善处置预案的信息维度、组织维度、功能维度、资源维度等维度信息,使其形成完整的新的数字化应急处置预案。The emergency handling process described in step 6, that is, the process dimension, and improving other dimension information is based on the emergency handling process, that is, the process dimension, and supplements and improves the information dimension, organizational dimension, and function of the disposal plan according to the nature and handling of the emergency. dimension, resource dimension and other dimensional information to form a complete new digital emergency response plan.

本发明的有益效果:Beneficial effects of the present invention:

该发明可以给突发事件的应急处置提供快速、准确的、直接性的参考,便于各级部门间的协调以及应急资源的优化调度,使突发事件的损失降到最低,同时,数字化应急预案为应急处置系统建设提供基础性保障。The invention can provide fast, accurate and direct reference for emergency response to emergencies, facilitate the coordination between departments at all levels and optimize the dispatch of emergency resources, and minimize the loss of emergencies. At the same time, the digital emergency plan Provide basic guarantee for the construction of emergency response system.

附图说明Description of drawings

图1应急预案数字化生成方法示意图。Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the digital generation method for emergency plans.

图2应急预案多维分解模型示意图。Figure 2 Schematic diagram of multidimensional decomposition model of emergency plan.

图3应急预案匹配示意图。Figure 3 Schematic diagram of emergency plan matching.

图4应急处置流程正确性验证过程示意图。Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the correctness verification process of the emergency response process.

具体实施方式detailed description

以下结合附图,对本发明的技术方案作进一步的描述,本发明并不限于这些实施例。The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and the present invention is not limited to these embodiments.

图1是应急预案数字化生成方法示意图。如图1所示,应急预案数字化生成方法步骤如下:Figure 1 is a schematic diagram of the digital generation method of the emergency plan. As shown in Figure 1, the steps of the digital generation method for emergency plans are as follows:

步骤1:将原有预案分解生成数字化应急预案库;Step 1: Decompose the original plan to generate a digital emergency plan library;

步骤2:当有突发事件时,根据突发事件,生成其应急预案的信息维度;Step 2: When there is an emergency, generate the information dimension of the emergency plan according to the emergency;

步骤3:将突发事件生成的信息维度与预案库中信息维度中相关目标的内容进行匹配,选择出相似度最高的预案;Step 3: Match the information dimension generated by the emergency with the content of the relevant target in the information dimension in the plan database, and select the plan with the highest similarity;

步骤4:根据相似度最高的预案,提取相似度最高的预案的过程维度信息生成初步处置流程;Step 4: According to the plan with the highest similarity, extract the process dimension information of the plan with the highest similarity to generate a preliminary treatment process;

步骤5:对生成的处置流程采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证,并对不合法或错误的流程进行修订,得到合理的处置流程;Step 5: Verify the correctness of the generated disposal process using the correct route matching strategy from the initial scene to the end scene, and revise the illegal or wrong process to obtain a reasonable disposal process;

步骤6:根据步骤5得到的应急处置流程,对突发事件进行处置,处置结束;当事故的现场有新突发事件情况时,转步骤2,从而循环执行上述流程直到处置结束;Step 6: According to the emergency treatment process obtained in step 5, deal with the emergency, and the treatment is completed; when there is a new emergency at the scene of the accident, go to step 2, so as to execute the above process in a loop until the treatment is completed;

步骤7:在已得到应急处置流程即过程维度的基础上完善该处置方案其他维度信息,存入预案库,以便以后使用。Step 7: On the basis of the obtained emergency response process, that is, the process dimension, improve the other dimension information of the disposal plan, and store it in the contingency plan database for future use.

[实施例][Example]

应急预案数字化生成方法,该方法A digital generation method for emergency plans, the method

a.应急预案数字化分解实例a. Example of digital decomposition of emergency plan

以北京地铁火灾预案为例,展示预案数字化分解过程:Take the Beijing subway fire plan as an example to show the digital decomposition process of the plan:

组织维度定义了车站现场指挥中心级、线路行车调度OCC级、运营企业总调级和指挥中心TCC级四个层级的用户以及每个组织包含着下属的人员。The organizational dimension defines the four levels of users at the station site command center level, line traffic dispatching OCC level, operating enterprise general dispatching level, and command center TCC level, and each organization includes subordinate personnel.

表一:组织维度示意Table 1: Schematic of Organizational Dimensions

过程维度一般是将处置要点列表,应急过程划分为操作过程和汇报过程,下表中列出了部分过程维度信息The process dimension is generally a list of disposal points and the emergency process is divided into an operation process and a reporting process. Some process dimension information is listed in the following table

表二:过程维度示意Table 2: Schematic representation of process dimensions

信息维度是对应急预案性质的描述,见下表:The information dimension is a description of the nature of the emergency plan, see the table below:

表三:信息维度示意Table 3: Schematic representation of information dimensions

资源维度明确了该突发事件下需要的应急资源种类,数量等。The resource dimension defines the type and quantity of emergency resources needed under the emergency.

表四:资源维度Table 4: Resource Dimensions

功能维度将过程维度和组织维度相关联,明确了某一具体岗位人员的工作任务。见下表五:The functional dimension associates the process dimension with the organizational dimension, and clarifies the tasks of personnel in a specific position. See Table 5 below:

表五:功能维度示意Table 5: Schematic of Functional Dimensions

以上5个excel工作表构成了一个完整的现有数字化应急预案。The above 5 excel worksheets constitute a complete existing digital emergency plan.

b.突发事件下数字化应急预案生成实例b. Examples of digital emergency plan generation under emergencies

事故背景:2013年12月12日晚17时35分,1221次1号线A站站务员发现下行1221次,在A站出站时第四节车厢冒烟,通报本站综控员,综控员立即上报1号线行车调度;17:37列车到达B站下行站台,第四节车厢火势无法控制,有5名乘客烧成重伤,1号线OCC命令车站扣车,预计中断时间1~3小时,并向指挥中心报告,并向指挥中心报告,启动应急预案:Accident background: At 17:35 on the evening of December 12, 2013, the station attendant at Station A of Line 1 found that 1221 times were going down. The controller immediately reported to the traffic dispatcher of Line 1; at 17:37, the train arrived at the downlink platform of Station B, the fire in the fourth carriage was out of control, and 5 passengers were seriously injured. The OCC of Line 1 ordered the station to detain the train. 3 hours, and report to the command center, and report to the command center, start the emergency plan:

(a)生成该事件下应急预案的信息维度(a) Generate the information dimension of the emergency plan under the event

事件时间:2013年12月12日晚17时35分Event time: December 12, 2013 at 17:35 p.m.

事件地点:1号线B站下行1221次第四节车厢Incident location: the fourth compartment of the 1221 down line at Station B of Line 1

事件类型:火灾Event Type: Fire

事件等级:二级Incident Level: Level 2

伤亡情况:5人重伤Casualties: 5 seriously injured

中断时间:1-3小时Interruption time: 1-3 hours

(b)应急预案的匹配(b) Matching of contingency plans

根据接警信息,得到目标事件C0,其属性特征为:{换乘站事故,地铁B站,火灾,17:35,Ⅱ级,5,1-3小时}。利用上文中提到的检索匹配算法对事件列表中的事件进行相似性度量。According to the alarm information, the target event C 0 is obtained, and its attribute characteristics are: {transfer station accident, subway station B, fire, 17:35, level II, 5, 1-3 hours}. Use the search matching algorithm mentioned above to measure the similarity of the events in the event list.

假设事件库中有5个事件,由{事故类型、事故地点、具体位置、发生时间、事故等级、伤亡人数、预计运营中断时间}7个属性进行描述(见表六)。其中事故类型、事故地点、具体位置、事故等级是字符型数据,事故等级和发生时间是连续型数据;伤亡人数和预计中断运营时间是模糊区间型数据。Suppose there are 5 events in the event database, which are described by 7 attributes {accident type, accident location, specific location, occurrence time, accident level, number of casualties, estimated operation interruption time} (see Table 6). Among them, the accident type, accident location, specific location, and accident level are character data, and the accident level and occurrence time are continuous data; the number of casualties and the expected interruption of operation time are fuzzy interval data.

首先,计算出事件各个属性的权重,如表七所示;然后逐项计算事件的结构相似度、局部属性相似度和不同事件属性间的可替代程度结算结果如表八所示。First, calculate the weight of each attribute of the event, as shown in Table 7; then calculate the structural similarity, local attribute similarity and substitutability between different event attributes item by item, as shown in Table 8.

表六事件属性表Table 6 Event attribute table

属性名称attribute name C1 C 1 C2 C 2 C3 C 3 C4 C 4 C5 C 5 事故类型A1 Accident Type A 1 火灾the fire 洪涝灾害Floods 大客流Large passenger flow 接触网停电catenary blackout 地外伤害extraterrestrial damage 事故地点A2 Accident location A 2 B站Station B C站Station C D站Station D E站Station E F站Station F 具体位置A4 Specific location A 4 轨道范围track range 铁路附近near the railway N/AN/A 轨道范围track range 轨道范围track range 发生时间A5 Occurrence time A 5 16:2016:20 14:2014:20 07:5007:50 18:1518:15 8:258:25 事故等级A6 Accident level A 6 II II III III IV 伤亡人数A7 Casualties A 7 22 N/AN/A N/AN/A 11 11 运营中断时间A8 Operation interruption time A 8 0.5-1h0.5-1h 3-10h3-10h 1-3h1-3h 1-3h1-3h 0-0.5h0-0.5h

表七属性权重计算表Table 7 Attribute Weight Calculation Table

属性Attributes A1 A 1 A2 A 2 A3 A 3 A4 A 4 A5 A 5 A6 A 6 A7 A 7 A8 A 8 A9 A 9 A10 A 10 权重Weights A1 A 1 00 0.80.8 0.170.17 0.50.5 0.80.8 0.20.2 0.250.25 0.250.25 0.50.5 0.20.2 0.0624310.062431 A2 A 2 0.20.2 00 0.090.09 0.20.2 0.50.5 0.110.11 0.140.14 0.140.14 0.20.2 0.110.11 0.0324360.032436 A4 A 4 0.50.5 0.80.8 0.170.17 00 0.80.8 0.20.2 0.250.25 0.250.25 0.50.5 0.20.2 0.0669230.066923 A5 A 5 0.20.2 0.50.5 0.090.09 0.20.2 00 0.110.11 0.140.14 0.140.14 0.20.2 0.110.11 0.0324350.032435 A6 A 6 0.80.8 0.890.89 0.710.71 0.80.8 0.890.89 00 0.730.73 0.730.73 0.80.8 0.50.5 0.1188450.118845 A7 A 7 0.750.75 0.860.86 0.230.23 0.750.75 0.860.86 0.270.27 00 0.50.5 0.750.75 0.270.27 0.0942310.094231 A8 A 8 0.750.75 0.860.86 0.230.23 0.750.75 0.860.86 0.270.27 0.50.5 00 0.750.75 0.270.27 0.0942310.094231

表八事件与目标事件相似性计算结果表Table 8 Calculation results of similarity between events and target events

在通过计算得到事件库中各个事件与目标事件的相似度的集合后,根据事先设定的阈值θ,θ∈[0.5,1],选择该事件。当SIM(Ci,C0)≥θ时,则选择该事件,并查找与之相对应的处置方案或应急预案。After calculating the set of similarities between each event in the event library and the target event, the event is selected according to the preset threshold θ, θ∈[0.5,1]. When SIM(C i ,C 0 )≥θ, select the event and find the corresponding disposal plan or emergency plan.

根据上述计算结果对事件的全局相似度进行计算,得到事件C1与目标事件的相似度为0.746307。确定事件C1与目标事件最为匹配,并查找与之对应的应急预案。According to the above calculation results, the global similarity of events is calculated, and the similarity between event C 1 and the target event is 0.746307. Determine that event C 1 best matches the target event, and find the corresponding emergency plan.

(c)提取相匹配的原有预案的过程维度信息初步生成处置流程;(c) Extract the process dimension information of the matching original plan to initially generate the disposal process;

(d)对生成的应急处置预案采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证,并对不合法或错误的流程进行修订,得到合理的处置流程;(d) Verify the correctness of the generated emergency response plan using the correct route matching strategy from the initial scene to the end scene, and revise the illegal or wrong process to obtain a reasonable process;

(e)根据步骤(d)所得应急处置流程,对突发事件进行处置,并根据事件处置情况实时反馈给步骤2,从而,循环执行上述流程直到处置结束。(e) According to the emergency handling process obtained in step (d), handle the emergency, and feed back to step 2 in real time according to the event handling situation, so that the above-mentioned process is executed cyclically until the handling is completed.

(f)最后完善该应急预案的其他维度(信息维度、功能维度、资源维度、组织维度),存入应急预案库。(f) Finally, other dimensions (information dimension, function dimension, resource dimension, organization dimension) of the emergency plan are improved and stored in the emergency plan database.

本发明可以给突发事件的应急处置提供快速、准确的、直接性的参考,便于各级部门间的协调以及应急资源的优化调度,使突发事件的损失降到最低,同时,数字化应急预案为应急处置系统建设提供基础性保障。The present invention can provide fast, accurate and direct reference for the emergency disposal of emergencies, facilitate the coordination between departments at all levels and the optimal dispatch of emergency resources, and minimize the loss of emergencies. At the same time, the digital emergency plan Provide basic guarantee for the construction of emergency response system.

Claims (6)

1.一种应急预案数字化生成方法,其特征在于,该方法包括以下步骤:1. A kind of emergency plan digitization generation method is characterized in that, the method comprises the following steps: 步骤1:将原有应急预案分解生成数字化应急预案库;Step 1: Decompose the original emergency plan to generate a digital emergency plan library; 步骤2:根据突发事件的类型、等级、伤亡情况,生成该事件下应急预案的信息维度;Step 2: According to the type, level, and casualties of the emergency, generate the information dimension of the emergency plan under the event; 步骤3:将根据突发事件生成的信息维度与应急预案数字化库中信息维度相关目标的内容进行匹配,选择出相似度最高的预案;Step 3: Match the information dimension generated according to the emergency with the content of the information dimension-related target in the emergency plan digital library, and select the plan with the highest similarity; 步骤4:根据相似度最高的预案,提取相似度最高的预案的过程维度信息生成初步处置流程;Step 4: According to the plan with the highest similarity, extract the process dimension information of the plan with the highest similarity to generate a preliminary treatment process; 步骤5:对生成的初步处置流程采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证,并对不合法或错误的流程进行修订,得到更为合理的处置流程案;Step 5: Verify the correctness of the generated preliminary disposal process using the correct route matching strategy from the initial scene to the end scene, and revise the illegal or wrong process to obtain a more reasonable disposal process plan; 步骤6:根据步骤5所得处置流程,对突发事件进行处置,直至事件处理结束;如果应急事件扩大,则更新事件信息维度,并转向步骤2,从而,循环执行上述流程直到处置结束;Step 6: According to the disposal process obtained in step 5, handle the emergency until the end of the event processing; if the emergency event expands, update the dimension of the event information and turn to step 2, so that the above process is cyclically executed until the end of the disposal; 所述将根据突发事件生成的信息维度与应急预案数字化库中信息维度中相关目标的内容进行匹配,方法如下:The information dimension generated according to the emergency is matched with the content of the relevant target in the information dimension in the emergency plan digital library, the method is as follows: 假设目标事件α与事件β进行匹配,α和β分别是由m个属性进行描述α={a1,a2,a3...am},β={b1,b2,b3...bm}与各属性的权重分别为wi,i=1,2,3,4...m,则α和β之间相似度SIM(α,β)的计算方法表示如下:Suppose the target event α is matched with the event β, α and β are described by m attributes respectively α={a 1 ,a 2 ,a 3 ...a m }, β={b 1 ,b 2 ,b 3 ...b m } and the weights of each attribute are w i , i=1, 2, 3, 4...m, then the calculation method of the similarity SIM(α, β) between α and β is expressed as follows: 其中,ωα,β表示α和β的结构相似度,它描述了缺失的属性数据对于事件间相似度计算的影响,表示了案例α和β间属性的可替代程度,sim(ai,bi)表示案例α和β的在属性i上的局部相似度;Among them, ω α, β represents the structural similarity between α and β, which describes the impact of missing attribute data on the calculation of similarity between events, Indicates the degree of substitutability of attributes between cases α and β, and sim(a i , b i ) represents the local similarity of cases α and β on attribute i; 事件α与事件β的事件全局相似度SIM(α,β)和属性的局部相似度sim(ai,bi)的取值范围均为[0,1],取值越高表示相似程度越高;The event global similarity SIM(α,β) of event α and event β and the local similarity sim(a i , bi ) of the attribute both range from [0,1]. The higher the value, the greater the similarity. high; 1)结构相似度的计算1) Calculation of structural similarity 目标事件α和事件β结构相似度的计算过程如下:The calculation process of the structural similarity between target event α and event β is as follows: 假设目标事件所有非空属性组成的集合为A0,源事件非空属性组成的集合为A1;计算为A0与A1的交集记为I,并集记为U;分别计算集合I与U中所有属性的权重之和分别记为ωI和ωU,则α和β的结构相似度的定义为:Assume that the set composed of all non-empty attributes of the target event is A 0 , and the set composed of non-empty attributes of the source event is A 1 ; the intersection of A 0 and A 1 is calculated as I, and the union is recorded as U; respectively calculate the sets I and The sum of the weights of all attributes in U is recorded as ω I and ω U respectively, then the definition of the structural similarity of α and β is: ωω αα ,, ββ == ωω II ωω Uu ,, -- -- -- (( 11 )) 2)属性局部相似度的计算2) Calculation of attribute local similarity 属性局部相似性指事件在各属性上的相似性,突发事件属性类型包括符号型、数值型,根据不同数据类型规定相应的属性局部相似性度量——The local similarity of attributes refers to the similarity of events on each attribute. The types of emergency event attributes include symbolic and numerical, and the corresponding local similarity measures of attributes are specified according to different data types—— 符号型属性相似度算法:符号型数据属于一种简单的枚举值,它列举了该属性所有可能的取值;他们的相似度计算如下:Symbolic attribute similarity algorithm: symbolic data is a simple enumeration value, which lists all possible values of the attribute; their similarity is calculated as follows: sthe s ii mm (( aa ii ,, bb ii )) == 11 aa ii == bb ii 00 aa ii ≠≠ bb ii ,, -- -- -- (( 22 )) 其中ai,bi表示目标事件α和β在属性i上的取值;Where a i , b i represent the values of target events α and β on attribute i; 数值型属性相似度算法:这里采用基于海明距离公式演化来的相似度方法,计算如下:Numerical attribute similarity algorithm: Here, the similarity method based on the evolution of the Hamming distance formula is used, and the calculation is as follows: sthe s ii mm (( aa ii ,, bb ii )) == 11 -- dd ii sthe s tt (( aa ii ,, bb ii )) == 11 -- || aa ii -- bb ii || || maxmax ii -- minmin ii || ,, -- -- -- (( 33 )) 其中,ai,bi表示α和β在属性i上的取值,maxi和mini表示属性i的最大值和最小值;Among them, a i and b i represent the values of α and β on attribute i, max i and min i represent the maximum and minimum values of attribute i; 对于每个数值型属性在计算相似度时都需要事先确定其取值范围;For each numerical attribute, its value range needs to be determined in advance when calculating the similarity; 3)目标事件α和事件β属性间的差异程度的计算3) Degree of difference between target event α and event β attributes calculation 由于属性之间往往不能相互替代,这里引入了“变异指标”来对属性之间的可替代性进行量化;变异指标反映的是总体中各单位间的差异程度,差异程度越大就越难以被代替;其计算方法如下:Since attributes are often not substitutable for each other, a "variation index" is introduced here to quantify the substitutability between attributes; the variation index reflects the degree of difference between units in the population, and the greater the degree of difference, the harder it is to be identified. instead; it is calculated as follows: Xx ‾‾ αα ,, ββ == 11 nno ΣΣ ii == 11 mm sthe s ii mm (( aa ii ,, bb ii )) ,, -- -- -- (( 55 )) σσ αα ,, ββ == 11 nno ΣΣ ii == 11 mm ww ii [[ sthe s ii mm (( aa ii ,, bb ii )) -- Xx ‾‾ αα ,, ββ ]] 22 ,, -- -- -- (( 66 )) 其中,为事件α和事件β各属性相似度的平均值,σα,β为事件α和事件β各属性相似度值的方差;in, is the average value of the similarity of each attribute of event α and event β, and σ α,β is the variance of the similarity value of each attribute of event α and event β; 4)事件特征属性权重的计算4) Calculation of event characteristic attribute weight 这里采用属性层次模型(Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM)来对事件各特征属性的权重值进行计算;Here, the attribute hierarchical model (Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM) is used to calculate the weight value of each characteristic attribute of the event; 所述属性层次模型(Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM)事先需要根据调研确定事件特征属性作为索引,然后根据表1所示的方式对各个属性间的相对重要性进行打分评定;The Attribute Hierarchical Model (Attribute Hierarchical Model AHM) needs to determine the event feature attribute as an index according to the investigation in advance, and then score and evaluate the relative importance between each attribute according to the method shown in Table 1; 表1 属性间的重要度评定Table 1 Importance evaluation among attributes 在得到属性ai和aj的相对重要度关系aij后,通过公式(7)对属性间的转移重要度uij进行计算,uij是属性ai对属性aj的转移重要度;After obtaining the relative importance relationship a ij of attributes a i and a j , the transfer importance u ij between attributes is calculated by formula (7), where u ij is the transfer importance of attribute a i to attribute a j ; uu ii jj == 00 ,, aa ii jj == 11 ,, ii == jj ,, 0.50.5 ,, aa ii jj == 11 ,, ii ≠≠ jj ,, 11 22 kk ++ 11 ,, aa ii jj == 11 kk ,, 22 kk 22 kk ++ 11 ,, aa ii jj == kk ,, ,, -- -- -- (( 77 )) 其中,i=1,2,3,...,m;j=1,2,3...,m;Among them, i=1,2,3,...,m; j=1,2,3...,m; 之后利用公式(8)对属性的转移重要度进行计算,得到最终的各个属性的权重ωiThen use the formula (8) to calculate the transfer importance of attributes to get the final weight ω i of each attribute: ωω ii == 22 nno (( nno -- 11 )) ΣΣ jj == 11 nno uu ii jj ,, -- -- -- (( 88 )) 其中,n为事件C所包含的属性个数;Among them, n is the number of attributes contained in event C; 匹配结束后会得到一匹配集,这里匹配集可能为空,也可能存储唯一的应急预案,也可能存在多个应急预案;如果存在多个应急预案,则以列表的形式将应急预案对应的应急处置流程按照匹配程度倒序展示出来,由应急处置相关人员选择最优解;如果匹配集为空,则调整维度信息,删减部分属性特征,重新进行匹配,直到得到不为空的匹配集;After the matching is completed, a matching set will be obtained. Here, the matching set may be empty, or a unique emergency plan may be stored, or there may be multiple emergency plans; if there are multiple emergency plans, the emergency plan corresponding to the emergency plan shall be listed. The disposal process is displayed in reverse order of matching degree, and the relevant personnel in emergency response select the optimal solution; if the matching set is empty, adjust the dimension information, delete some attribute characteristics, and re-match until a non-empty matching set is obtained; 这样,即完成了根据突发事件生成的目标树或子目标树与应急预案数字化库中过程维度中相关内容的匹配。In this way, the matching of the target tree or sub-target tree generated according to the emergency with the relevant content in the process dimension of the emergency plan digital library is completed. 2.根据权利要求1所述的一种应急预案数字化生成方法,其特征在于,该方法还包括:2. A kind of emergency plan digital generation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, this method also comprises: 步骤7:在所述事件处理结束后,将步骤6所述处置流程即过程维度完善其他维度信息,形成新的数字化处置预案存入应急预案库,以便以后使用。Step 7: After the event processing is completed, complete the disposal process described in step 6, namely the process dimension, to improve other dimension information to form a new digital disposal plan and store it in the emergency plan library for future use. 3.根据权利要求1所述的一种应急预案数字化生成方法,其特征在于,所述将原有应急预案分解生成数字化应急预案库方法如下:3. a kind of emergency plan digital generation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described original emergency plan is decomposed and generates digitized emergency plan storehouse method as follows: 将原有的文本式的应急预案分解,形成为包括信息维度、组织维度、资源维度、过程维度、功能维度5个维度的数字化预案;Decompose the original text-based emergency plan into a digital plan including five dimensions: information dimension, organization dimension, resource dimension, process dimension, and function dimension; 信息维度包括两部分:一是该应急预案的基本信息,包括编制部门、编制时间、版本号;二是该应急预案对应的突发事件的信息,包括事件类型,事件等级、伤亡情况;The information dimension includes two parts: one is the basic information of the emergency plan, including the compilation department, compilation time, and version number; the other is the information of the emergency corresponding to the emergency plan, including the event type, event level, and casualties; 组织维度,是该单位的工作人员的信息数据;The organizational dimension is the information data of the staff of the unit; 资源维度,是从资源配置的角度对应急过程进行描述的信息数据;The resource dimension is the information data that describes the emergency process from the perspective of resource allocation; 过程维度是预案中的关键维度,由应急处置过程中的一系列子任务构成,这些子任务作为可以直接执行的抽象实体,自身又包含属性:名称、功能、目标、执行人员、使用资源、时限、开始条件、结束条件中的一个或多个;过程维度研究就是将这些任务按其约束关系,组织成为有一定层级结构的过程;The process dimension is the key dimension in the contingency plan. It consists of a series of subtasks in the emergency response process. These subtasks are abstract entities that can be directly executed, and they themselves contain attributes: name, function, goal, executor, resource use, and time limit One or more of , start condition, and end condition; process dimension research is to organize these tasks into a process with a certain hierarchical structure according to their constraint relationship; 功能维度从各应急组织或者部门的功能职责角度对应急处置流程进行描述,补充了组织维度和过程维度仅对应急组织分级和任务步骤流程关注的局限,增加了组织功能、任务目标与流程步骤之间的关联,辅助应急预案形式化;The functional dimension describes the emergency response process from the perspective of the functional responsibilities of each emergency organization or department, supplements the limitations of the organizational dimension and process dimension that only focus on emergency organization classification and task steps, and increases the relationship between organizational functions, task objectives, and process steps. The connection between them, assisting the formalization of the emergency plan; 每个分解后的预案以数字化的形式存储,这样即得到数字化应急预案库。Each decomposed plan is stored in a digital form, so that a digital emergency plan library is obtained. 4.根据权利要求1所述的一种应急预案数字化生成方法,其特征在于,所述提取相匹配的原有预案的过程维度信息初步生成处置流程方法为:数字化应急预案中的过程维度中存储的信息即应急处置流程信息,因此直接提取匹配度最高的应急预案中的过程维度,即可得到该事件下的处置流程。4. A kind of emergency plan digitization generation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the process dimension information of the original plan of described extraction that matches initially generates and handles flow method is: store in the process dimension in the digitized emergency plan The information is the emergency handling process information, so the process dimension in the emergency plan with the highest matching degree can be directly extracted to obtain the handling process under the event. 5.根据权利要求1所述的一种应急预案数字化生成方法,其特征在于,所述采用初始场景到结束场景线路正确的路线匹配策略进行正确性验证方法为:5. a kind of emergency plan digital generation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described adopting initial scene to the correct route matching strategy of end scene line to carry out correctness verification method is: 数字化应急预案模型中的每个应急处置流程单元,都看作是一个场景,因此具有“是初始场景”,“是结束场景”,“具有下一场景”,“具有前一场景”特性,检验应急处置路程的正确性即可转化为检验各个场景的顺序或并发约束关系:Each emergency handling process unit in the digital emergency plan model is regarded as a scene, so it has the characteristics of "is the initial scene", "is the end scene", "has the next scene", and "has the previous scene". The correctness of the emergency handling route can be transformed into checking the sequence or concurrency constraints of each scenario: 若生成的应急处置流程单元场景具有下面情况中的任意一中,则该流程错误:If the generated emergency handling process unit scenario has any of the following conditions, the process is wrong: (1)缺少初始场景或者结束场景;(1) Lack of initial scene or ending scene; (2)没有到达结束场景;(2) Did not reach the end scene; (3)能到达结束场景,但有场景被遗漏;(3) The end scene can be reached, but some scenes are missed; (4)各场景间的约束关系不正确。(4) The constraint relationship between each scene is incorrect. 6.根据权利要求2所述的一种应急预案数字化生成方法,其特征在于,所述将步骤6所述应急处置流程即过程维度完善其他维度信息为在已经得到应急处置流程即过程维度基础上,根据突发事件性质、处置情况补充完善处置预案的信息维度、组织维度、功能维度、资源维度,使其形成完整的新的数字化应急处置预案。6. A method for digitally generating an emergency plan according to claim 2, characterized in that, the emergency handling process described in step 6, that is, the process dimension, is used to improve other dimension information on the basis of the obtained emergency handling process, that is, the process dimension According to the nature and handling of emergencies, supplement and improve the information dimension, organizational dimension, function dimension, and resource dimension of the disposal plan, so that it can form a complete new digital emergency response plan.
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