CN114139959B - A real-time operating status assessment method for distribution transformers - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种配电变压器实时运行状态评估方法，它包括：步骤1、采用基于正交多项式的最小二乘法，对采集的实时电气状态量数据进行拟合处理，对缺失的电气状态量数据进行补齐；步骤2、根据补齐后的数据计算配电变压器实时负载率以及电压变差并将二者作为配电变压器运行状态评价的指标；步骤3、根据配电变压器实时负载率以及电压偏差计算结果建立各指标对应的扣分模型，并以此为基础构建配电变压器状态评估模型，获得配电变压器实时状态评分，实现对配变变压器运行状态的量化评估；解决了现有技术采用断点数据对配电变压器实时运行状态评估因为数据信息不完整最准影响状态评估准确性和可靠性等技术问题。
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the real-time operation state of a distribution transformer, which comprises: step 1, using the least square method based on orthogonal polynomials to perform fitting processing on the collected real-time electrical state quantity data, and to complete the missing electrical state quantity data; step 2, calculating the real-time load rate and voltage variation of the distribution transformer according to the completed data, and using the two as indicators for evaluating the operation state of the distribution transformer; step 3, establishing a deduction model corresponding to each indicator according to the calculation results of the real-time load rate and voltage deviation of the distribution transformer, and constructing a distribution transformer state evaluation model based on the above, obtaining the real-time state score of the distribution transformer, and realizing quantitative evaluation of the operation state of the distribution transformer; the technical problems such as the use of breakpoint data in the prior art to evaluate the real-time operation state of the distribution transformer, which affects the accuracy and reliability of the state evaluation due to incomplete data information, are solved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technology of monitoring the running state of a transformer, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating the real-time running state of a distribution transformer.
Background
The method for evaluating the real-time running state of the distribution transformer is quite a lot, but in the prior art, the distribution transformer is evaluated, the evaluation result is taken out after the data information of the breakpoint state quantity of the transformer is collected and comprehensively processed, and the accuracy and the reliability of state evaluation are affected by the adoption of the breakpoint data because of incomplete data information.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems that the accuracy and the reliability of state evaluation are affected by incomplete data information in the prior art for evaluating the real-time running state of a distribution transformer by breakpoint data.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a method for evaluating the real-time running state of a distribution transformer, comprising the following steps:
Step 1, fitting acquired real-time electrical state quantity data by adopting a least square method based on an orthogonal polynomial, and supplementing missing electrical state quantity data;
step 2, calculating the real-time load rate and voltage variation of the distribution transformer according to the data after the compensation, and taking the real-time load rate and the voltage variation as indexes for evaluating the running state of the distribution transformer;
And step 3, building a withholding model corresponding to each index according to the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation calculation result of the distribution transformer, and building a state evaluation model of the distribution transformer based on the withholding model to obtain the real-time state score of the distribution transformer so as to realize quantitative evaluation of the running state of the distribution transformer.
And 4, drawing a change relation diagram of the real-time state score and time of the distribution transformer by taking time as a horizontal axis and the distribution transformer state score as a vertical axis according to the calculation result of the step 3.
The method for fitting the acquired real-time electrical state quantity data and supplementing the missing electrical state quantity data by adopting a least square method based on an orthogonal polynomial comprises the following steps:
Let (x i,yi) (i=0, 1..m) be a set of data of variables x, y, ω i >0 (i=0, 1..m) be weight coefficients of each point, and the least squares method can be expressed as a function space In (3) solving a function
Minimizing the sum of squares of all data and fitting data errors, i.e
Where S is the n+1-dimensional subspace of the continuous function space C [ a, b ],Is a set of basis functions of S;
The least squares fit method equation set matrix form is as follows:
Wherein:
by solving the formula (3), the coefficients a 0,a1,…,an of each basis function of the function s * (x) to be solved can be obtained;
Set a set of given points Weight coefficient of each pointIf polynomial familyThe method meets the following conditions:
Then call for For a set of pointsIs entitled to (a)Orthogonal polynomial families;
Substituting equation (6) into equation (3) yields a matrix representation of the system of least squares fit equations based on the orthogonal polynomials, as follows:
By recursing the relation:
Constructing an orthogonal polynomial, substituting the constructed orthogonal polynomial into a formula (7) after determining fitting times, and obtaining coefficients of the corresponding basis functions;
When the electrical state quantity data has a shortage term, selecting 6 adjacent data of the data record as a basic data set, setting the fitting times as 2 times, taking time as an independent variable x, taking the corresponding electrical state quantity of the shortage as a dependent variable y, respectively forming a set { x 1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6 } of the independent variable x and a set { y 1,y2,y3,y4,y5,y6 } of the dependent variable y, wherein the set x corresponds to the numerical value in the set y one by one, and when the set x and the set y are determined, carrying out the method into the least square equation system based on the orthogonal polynomial to obtain the corresponding odd basis function coefficient, and carrying the data corresponding to the shortage term data into the data time to obtain the electrical state quantity.
The method for calculating the real-time load rate and the voltage variation of the distribution transformer comprises the following steps:
The load factor calculation formula is as follows:
a, B, C respectively represents three-phase current of the distribution transformer A, B, C, and capability represents distribution transformer operation capacity;
The voltage deviation refers to the deviation degree between the actual voltage and the nominal voltage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein U T is the real-time voltage of the distribution transformer, and U R is the nominal phase voltage of the system.
The method for quantitatively evaluating the running state of the distribution transformer specifically comprises the following steps of establishing a deduction model corresponding to each index according to the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation calculation result of the distribution transformer, and constructing a state evaluation model of the distribution transformer based on the deduction model to obtain the real-time state score of the distribution transformer:
Step 3.1, comparing the real-time state quantity representing the running state of the transformer with a corresponding standard value according to the running specification guideline of the distribution transformer, dividing the real-time state quantity into four states of normal, attention, abnormality and emergency in sequence according to the real-time state quantity value of the distribution transformer, wherein the real-time state quantity value range and the grading interval corresponding to each index item are shown in the following table 2:
table 2 status measurement value ranges and scoring intervals corresponding to the respective indexes
| Index name | Normal state | Note that | Abnormality of | Emergency system |
| Load factor | [0,0.8) | [0.8,1) | [1,2) | [2,+∞) |
| Voltage deviation | [0,5%) | [5%,7%) | [7%,10%) | [10%,+∞) |
| Clasp division section | [0,15) | [15,25) | [25,40) | [40,100] |
| Inter-score partition | (85,100] | (75,85] | (60,75] | [0,60] |
And 3.2, establishing a corresponding relation between equipment evaluation indexes and health states, and establishing an equipment health state deduction model by using a piecewise function, wherein the method comprises the following steps of:
As can be seen from table 2, the values of S Li、SHi、SSi、ai、bi、ci in the formula are 15, 25, 40, 0.8, 1, and 2 in order, and the values of the voltage deviation indexes are 15, 25, 40, 5, 7, and 10 in order, respectively, and cof is a continuous influence coefficient considering that continuous overload affects the health state of the distribution transformer, and the values are as follows:
where n is the number of consecutive overloads, cof is 1 when n is 0, and 1 is the voltage deviation index cof.
And 3.3, calculating a comprehensive deduction value of the distribution transformer, and after calculating the load rate and the voltage deviation deduction value of the distribution transformer, calculating the comprehensive deduction value of the distribution transformer by considering the real-time weight ratio of each index value, wherein the comprehensive deduction value of the distribution transformer is as follows:
when the score obtained by the calculation of the formula is greater than 100, the comprehensive deduction score is taken as 100;
and 3.4, after obtaining the comprehensive deduction values of all real-time indexes of the distribution transformer, calculating the comprehensive deduction values of the distribution transformer, wherein the comprehensive deduction values are as follows:
S=100-SD
(15)。
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
The invention provides a state evaluation method of a distribution transformer, which only needs to consider the influence of load rate and voltage deviation, based on real-time electrical state quantity data of the distribution transformer. The method can effectively evaluate the running state of the transformer every 15min, simultaneously gives consideration to the influence of continuous overload on the running state of the distribution transformer, can provide effective support for early diagnosis and early warning of the distribution transformer in time, is convenient for formulation of a differentiated running and maintenance strategy of the distribution transformer, and solves the technical problems that the accuracy, reliability and the like of state evaluation are influenced by incomplete data information in the real-time running state evaluation of the distribution transformer by adopting breakpoint data in the prior art.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of real-time status scores of a distribution transformer.
Detailed Description
A method for evaluating the real-time running state of a distribution transformer, comprising the following steps:
And step 1, performing fitting processing on real-time three-phase current and voltage data derived by a metering automation system by using a least square method based on an orthogonal polynomial so as to supplement three-phase current and voltage open-term data caused by a collecting device.
The monitoring device installed on the distribution transformer generally collects real-time electrical state quantity data of the transformer, records the data once every 15min, and stores the collected data into the metering automation system, wherein the specific data format is shown in table 1.
Table 1 distribution transformer real-time electrical state quantity data
However, the electrical state quantity data is sometimes easy to generate a defect term due to the device reason, and the value is simply regarded as 0 or other values, so that the evaluation of the real-time running state of the distribution transformer can be influenced to a certain extent, and the misjudgment of the result is easy to be caused. Therefore, the method adopts a least square method based on an orthogonal polynomial, carries out fitting processing on the real-time electrical state quantity data of the metering automation system, and supplements the missing electrical state quantity data so as to reduce the influence of the data defect on the operation state evaluation. The basic principle of the least square method based on the orthogonal polynomial is as follows:
(1) Least squares fitting principle
Let (x i,yi) (i=0, 1..m) be a set of data of variables x, y, ω i >0 (i=0, 1..m) be weight coefficients of each point, and the least squares method can be expressed as a function spaceIn (3) solving a function
Minimizing the sum of squares of all data and fitting data errors, i.e
Where S is the n+1-dimensional subspace of the continuous function space C [ a, b ],Is a set of basis functions of S.
The least squares fit method equation set matrix form is as follows:
Wherein:
By solving the equation (3), the coefficients a 0,a1,…,an of the basis functions of the functions s * (x) to be solved can be obtained.
(2) Least square fitting principle based on orthogonal polynomials
In practical application, when the least square method is directly adopted to perform data fitting, the coefficient matrix of the formula (3) is often in a pathological state, so that a calculation result is unstable, and an orthogonal polynomial is selected as a basis function to perform data fitting, so that the phenomenon of unstable calculation result caused by the pathological state of the coefficient matrix can be effectively avoided. Therefore, the invention adopts the least square method based on the orthogonal polynomial to carry out data fitting, and the basic principle is as follows:
Set a set of given points Weight coefficient of each pointIf polynomial familyThe method meets the following conditions:
Then call for For a set of pointsIs entitled to (a)Orthogonal polynomial families.
Substituting equation (6) into equation (3) yields a matrix representation of the system of least squares fit equations based on the orthogonal polynomials, as follows:
The invention is characterized by the following recursive relational expression:
and constructing an orthogonal polynomial, and substituting the constructed orthogonal polynomial into the formula (7) after the fitting degree is determined, so as to obtain the coefficient of the corresponding basis function.
When there is a shortage of the electrical state quantity data, the adjacent 6 pieces of data of the piece of data record are selected as the basic data set (the first three pieces of data and the last three pieces of data record, when the front of the piece of data record is less than the three pieces of data record, the filling is performed from the rear, and similarly, when the rear data record is not enough, the filling is performed from the front), and the fitting number is set to 2 times. Meanwhile, the time is taken as an independent variable x, and the corresponding electrical state quantity which is missing is taken as a dependent variable y. For example, when the current has a missing item with the sequence number 5 in table 1, 3 pieces of data time and current data before and after the piece of record data are selected to respectively form a set { x 1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6 } of the independent variables x and a set { y 1,y2,y3,y4,y5,y6 } of the dependent variables y, wherein the set x corresponds to the numerical value in the set y one by one.
After the set x and the set y are determined, the set x and the set y are put into the least square equation set based on the orthogonal polynomial, the corresponding odd basis function coefficients are obtained, and the data time corresponding to the open-term data is put into the system, so that the electric state quantity can be obtained. It should be noted that, since the data time of the application metering automation system is in the format of "year-month-day-hour-minute", the data time is converted during calculation, for example, 2020-7-1:00 is 0, 2020-7-1:00:15 is 1, 2020-7-1:00 is 30 is 2, and so on.
And 2, calculating the real-time load rate and the voltage variation of the distribution transformer by using the real-time data of the application metering automation system processed in the step 1, and taking the real-time load rate and the voltage variation as indexes for evaluating the running state of the distribution transformer.
The load factor is an important index for measuring the state of the distribution transformer, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein A, B, C represents three-phase current of the distribution transformer A, B, C, and capability represents distribution transformer operating capacity.
The voltage deviation refers to the deviation degree between the actual voltage and the nominal voltage, is a main parameter reflecting the voltage quality, and has the following calculation formula:
Wherein U T is the real-time voltage of the distribution transformer, and U R is the nominal phase voltage of the system.
The distribution transformer load factor and voltage deviation at the corresponding moment of the distribution transformer can be obtained by substituting the three-phase current and the distribution transformer operating capacity in each period A, B, C in table 1 into the formula (10) and substituting the real-time voltage and the nominal voltage into the formula (11).
And judging the load condition of the distribution transformer according to the obtained load value after the calculation of the load ratio and the voltage deviation of the distribution transformer is finished, wherein the distribution transformer is overloaded at the corresponding moment as long as the load ratio value is more than or equal to 1, and the distribution transformer is defined as continuous overload if the time difference between the two overloads of the distribution transformer is 15 min.
And step 3, building a withholding model corresponding to each index according to the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation calculation result of the distribution transformer, and building a state evaluation model of the distribution transformer based on the withholding model to obtain the real-time state score of the distribution transformer so as to realize quantitative evaluation of the running state of the distribution transformer.
Firstly, according to related operation specification guidelines of a distribution transformer, comparing and analyzing real-time state quantity representing the operation state of the transformer with a corresponding standard value. According to the real-time state measuring value of the distribution transformer, the distribution transformer is divided into four states of normal, attention, abnormal and emergency in sequence. The real-time state measuring value range and scoring interval corresponding to each index item are shown in the following table:
table 2 status measurement value ranges and scoring intervals corresponding to the respective indexes
| Index name | Normal state | Note that | Abnormality of | Emergency system |
| Load factor | [0,0.8) | [0.8,1) | [1,2) | [2,+∞) |
| Voltage deviation | [0,5%) | [5%,7%) | [7%,10%) | [10%,+∞) |
| Clasp division section | [0,15) | [15,25) | [25,40) | [40,100] |
| Inter-score partition | (85,100] | (75,85] | (60,75] | [0,60] |
Secondly, in order to establish the corresponding relation between the equipment evaluation index and the health state, a piecewise function is utilized to establish an equipment health state deduction model, as follows:
in the formula, i=1, 2, which in turn represents the load factor and the voltage deviation index. As can be seen from table 2, the values of S Li、SHi、SSi、ai、bi、ci in the formula are 15, 25, 40, 0.8, 1, and 2 in order for the load factor index, and 15, 25, 40, 5%, 7%, and 10% in order for the voltage deviation index. cof is a continuous influence coefficient considering the influence of continuous overload on the health state of the distribution transformer, and the value is as follows:
where n is the number of consecutive overloads, cof is 1 when n is 0, and 1 is the voltage deviation index cof.
Next, a distribution transformer integrated deduction value is calculated. After the distribution transformer load rate and the voltage deviation deduction value are calculated, the distribution transformer comprehensive deduction value is calculated by considering the real-time weight ratio of each index value, as follows:
note that when the score obtained by the calculation of the above formula is greater than 100, the integrated deduction score is taken as 100.
Finally, after the comprehensive deduction value of each real-time index of the distribution transformer is obtained, the comprehensive deduction value of the distribution transformer is calculated, and the comprehensive deduction value of the distribution transformer is shown as follows:
S=100-SD
(15)
And 4, drawing a change relation diagram of the real-time state score and time of the distribution transformer by taking time as a horizontal axis and the distribution transformer state score as a vertical axis according to the calculation result of the step 3.
After the distribution transformer real-time state score is obtained, the distribution transformer real-time running state can be clearly reflected. Meanwhile, in order to reflect the change condition of the state of the distribution transformer along with time more intuitively and clearly, the operation and maintenance strategy of the distribution transformer is convenient to formulate, the data time is taken as a horizontal axis, and the distribution transformer state score is divided into a vertical axis to draw a change relation diagram of the real-time state score of the distribution transformer and the time. Meanwhile, in the drawing and the drawing of critical lines of states such as normal and attention, attention and abnormality, abnormality and emergency, and the like, the real-time running state of the distribution transformer is more intuitively displayed as shown in the attached figure 1.
Claims (3)
1. A method for evaluating the real-time running state of a distribution transformer, comprising the following steps:
Step 1, fitting acquired real-time electrical state quantity data by adopting a least square method based on an orthogonal polynomial, and supplementing missing electrical state quantity data;
The method for complementing the missing electrical state quantity data comprises the following steps:
Let (x i,yi) (i=0, 1..m) be a set of data of variables x, y, ω i >0 (i=0, 1..m) be weight coefficients of each point, and the least squares method can be expressed as a function space In (3) solving a function
Minimizing the sum of squares of all data and fitting data errors, i.e
Where S is the n+1-dimensional subspace of the continuous function space C [ a, b ],Is a set of basis functions of S;
The least squares fit method equation set matrix form is as follows:
Wherein:
by solving the formula (3), the coefficients a 0,a1,…,an of each basis function of the function s * (x) to be solved can be obtained;
Set a set of given points Weight coefficient of each pointIf polynomial familyThe method meets the following conditions:
Then call for For a set of pointsIs entitled to (a)Orthogonal polynomial families;
Substituting equation (6) into equation (3) yields a matrix representation of the system of least squares fit equations based on the orthogonal polynomials, as follows:
By recursing the relation:
Constructing an orthogonal polynomial, substituting the constructed orthogonal polynomial into a formula (7) after determining fitting times, and obtaining coefficients of the corresponding basis functions;
When the electrical state quantity data has a shortage item, selecting 6 adjacent data of the data record as a basic data set, setting the fitting times as 2 times, taking time as an independent variable x, taking the corresponding electrical state quantity of the shortage as a dependent variable y, respectively forming a set { x 1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6 } of the independent variable x and a set { y 1,y2,y3,y4,y5,y6 } of the dependent variable y, wherein the set x corresponds to the numerical value in the set y one by one;
Step 2, calculating the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation of the distribution transformer according to the data after the compensation, and taking the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation as indexes for evaluating the running state of the distribution transformer;
And step 3, building a withholding model corresponding to each index according to the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation calculation result of the distribution transformer, and building a state evaluation model of the distribution transformer based on the withholding model to obtain the real-time state score of the distribution transformer so as to realize quantitative evaluation of the running state of the distribution transformer.
2. The method for evaluating the real-time running state of the distribution transformer according to claim 1, wherein step 4 is characterized in that according to the calculation result of step 3, the time is taken as a horizontal axis, the distribution transformer state score is divided into a vertical axis, and a change relation graph of the distribution transformer real-time state score and the time is drawn.
3. The method for evaluating the real-time running state of the distribution transformer according to claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the real-time load rate and the voltage deviation of the distribution transformer is as follows:
The load factor calculation formula is as follows:
a, B, C respectively represents three-phase current of the distribution transformer A, B, C, and capability represents distribution transformer operation capacity;
The voltage deviation refers to the deviation degree between the actual voltage and the nominal voltage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein U T is the real-time voltage of the distribution transformer, and U R is the nominal phase voltage of the system.
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