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CN118365150B - Construction drawing full-caliber budget verification method based on full-element matching - Google Patents

Construction drawing full-caliber budget verification method based on full-element matching Download PDF

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CN118365150B
CN118365150B CN202410798879.2A CN202410798879A CN118365150B CN 118365150 B CN118365150 B CN 118365150B CN 202410798879 A CN202410798879 A CN 202410798879A CN 118365150 B CN118365150 B CN 118365150B
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高象
方天睿
刘士李
陈付雷
李建青
赵迎迎
施晓敏
沈思
杨帆
唐越
李�荣
付安媛
夏雅利
陆欣欣
崔宏
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Abstract

本发明公开了基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,涉及全口径预算校验技术领域,包括:在预算校检过程前,进行成本数据的风险评估,得到第一数据,所述第一数据包括设备更新数据;将设备更新数据通过三维坐标轴转换为图像数据,并将图像数据绘制成曲线,并对曲线通过聚类分析进行特征提取;根据提取的特征进行聚类分析,将曲线划分为不同的聚类簇;依据不同的聚类簇相乘计算设备更新影响系数;基于所述设备更新影响系数建立成本风险评估模型,计算成本校验风险指数;基于成本校验风险指数进行预算校验风险分析,判断将要进行的预算校验是否存在校验准确性不足的风险,若存在则进行风险管控,从而有效提高预算校验的准确性和稳定性。

The present invention discloses a full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-element matching, which relates to the technical field of full-caliber budget verification, and comprises: before the budget verification process, performing a risk assessment on cost data to obtain first data, wherein the first data comprises equipment update data; converting the equipment update data into image data through a three-dimensional coordinate axis, and drawing the image data into a curve, and extracting features of the curve through cluster analysis; performing cluster analysis according to the extracted features, and dividing the curve into different cluster clusters; calculating the equipment update impact coefficient by multiplying different cluster clusters; establishing a cost risk assessment model based on the equipment update impact coefficient, and calculating a cost verification risk index; performing budget verification risk analysis based on the cost verification risk index, and judging whether there is a risk of insufficient verification accuracy in the budget verification to be performed, and if so, performing risk management and control, thereby effectively improving the accuracy and stability of the budget verification.

Description

基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法A full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-factor matching

技术领域Technical Field

本发明涉及全口径预算校验技术领域,更具体地说,本发明涉及基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法。The present invention relates to the technical field of full-caliber budget verification, and more specifically, to a full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-element matching.

背景技术Background Art

施工图指的是工程项目的详细设计图纸,其中包含了建筑、电气、机械等各个方面的设计细节,用于指导实际的施工工作;Construction drawings refer to detailed design drawings of engineering projects, which contain design details of various aspects such as architecture, electrical, and mechanical, and are used to guide actual construction work;

全口径预算是对整个项目所有方面的成本进行综合考虑和估算的预算;这包括了所有可能的费用,如建筑材料、人工费、设备租赁费、管理费用、间接费用等,以确保在项目实施过程中不会因为费用的遗漏而产生问题;A full-scope budget is a budget that comprehensively considers and estimates the costs of all aspects of the entire project; this includes all possible expenses, such as building materials, labor costs, equipment rental fees, management costs, indirect costs, etc., to ensure that no problems will arise during the implementation of the project due to omissions of costs;

全要素匹配是指在进行预算校验时,要确保预算中包含了项目的所有要素,且这些要素与实际施工图中的各项指标相匹配。这包括了数量、质量、规格、标准等方面的匹配;Full factor matching means that when conducting budget verification, we must ensure that all elements of the project are included in the budget and that these elements match the indicators in the actual construction drawings. This includes matching in terms of quantity, quality, specifications, standards, etc.

预算校验方法是指用于验证项目预算的准确性和完整性的一系列技术和步骤。这些方法可能涉及对施工图的详细分析,对各项费用的估算和比对,以及与历史数据或市场行情的比较等Budget verification methods refer to a series of techniques and procedures used to verify the accuracy and completeness of a project budget. These methods may involve detailed analysis of construction drawings, estimation and comparison of various costs, and comparison with historical data or market conditions.

例如公开号为:CN112116339A的专利申请,公开了资金全链路控制校验方法及装置,通过接收应用程序上传的支付数据,根据支付数据解析获取场景编号;根据场景编号匹配数据库中预存的资金流向控制表和场景控制表,获得场景编号对应的支付规则数据和参与方订单限额数据;利用支付规则数据和参与方订单限额数据分别对支付数据中的参与方之间的资金额度和资金流向逻辑进行校验;当校验通过后反馈支付校验结果,对多场景下单的收付等参与主体的合理性、订单级支付的收付路径合理和准确性、多种场景的支付路径合理和准确性、订单级的台账记账合理性等进行了有效地检验。For example, the patent application with publication number: CN112116339A discloses a method and device for verifying the full-link control of funds. The method receives payment data uploaded by an application and obtains a scenario number based on the payment data analysis. The scenario number matches the pre-stored fund flow control table and scenario control table in the database to obtain the payment rule data and the participant order limit data corresponding to the scenario number. The payment rule data and the participant order limit data are used to verify the fund amount and fund flow logic between the participants in the payment data respectively. When the verification is passed, the payment verification result is fed back, and the rationality of the participants such as the payment and collection of orders in multiple scenarios, the rationality and accuracy of the payment and collection paths of order-level payments, the rationality and accuracy of payment paths in multiple scenarios, and the rationality of order-level ledger accounting are effectively verified.

例如公开号为:CN110428316B的发明专利,公开了信息校验方法及装置,通过获取预算结余信息、差异调节项信息和财务盈余信息;基于预算结余信息和差异调节项信息确定第一财务盈余数值;基于财务盈余信息确定财务盈余,将财务盈余确定为第二财务盈余数值;校验第一财务盈余数值与第二财务盈余数值是否一致;若第一财务盈余数值与第二财务盈余数值不一致,则提示调节差异调节项;通过本发明实施例,可提高会计核算的准确率,提高差异调节信息记录的效率。For example, the invention patent with publication number: CN110428316B discloses an information verification method and device, which obtains budget surplus information, difference adjustment item information and financial surplus information; determines a first financial surplus value based on the budget surplus information and the difference adjustment item information; determines the financial surplus based on the financial surplus information, and determines the financial surplus as a second financial surplus value; verifies whether the first financial surplus value is consistent with the second financial surplus value; if the first financial surplus value is inconsistent with the second financial surplus value, prompts to adjust the difference adjustment item; through the embodiments of the present invention, the accuracy of accounting can be improved and the efficiency of recording difference adjustment information can be improved.

但本申请发明人在实现本申请实施例中发明技术方案的过程中,发现上述技术至少存在如下技术问题:However, the inventors of this application found that the above technology has at least the following technical problems in the process of implementing the technical solution of the invention in the embodiment of this application:

(1)电气设备、材料等的价格受市场供求关系、原材料价格、政策变化等多种因素影响,价格波动大,可能导致预算偏差。(1) The prices of electrical equipment and materials are affected by many factors, such as market supply and demand, raw material prices, and policy changes. Large price fluctuations may lead to budget deviations.

(2)电气领域的技术更新迅速,新技术的应用可能带来成本的不确定性,尤其是在长周期项目中,技术更新可能会导致原有预算不够用。(2) Technology in the electrical field is updated rapidly. The application of new technologies may bring cost uncertainty, especially in long-term projects. Technology updates may make the original budget insufficient.

(3)电力建筑需要高技能的人力资源,而人力成本受地区、技能等因素影响较大,人力资源的变动和成本波动也是预算校验中的重要因素。(3) Power construction requires highly skilled human resources, and labor costs are greatly affected by factors such as region and skills. Changes in human resources and cost fluctuations are also important factors in budget verification.

(4)供应链中的延误、质量问题等可能导致成本增加,同时也会对整个项目的进度产生影响,需要及时应对。(4) Delays and quality issues in the supply chain may lead to increased costs and also affect the progress of the entire project, which requires timely response.

因此,需要建立成本风险分析模型,识别潜在的成本风险因素,并提出相应的应对策略,提高校验准确性。Therefore, it is necessary to establish a cost risk analysis model, identify potential cost risk factors, and propose corresponding response strategies to improve verification accuracy.

发明内容Summary of the invention

为了克服现有技术的上述缺陷,本发明的实施例提供基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,通过建立成本风险分析模型,识别潜在的成本风险因素,并提出相应的应对策略,以解决上述背景技术中提出的问题。In order to overcome the above-mentioned defects of the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention provides a full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-factor matching. By establishing a cost risk analysis model, potential cost risk factors are identified, and corresponding response strategies are proposed to solve the problems raised in the above-mentioned background technology.

为实现上述目的,本发明提供如下技术方案:To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,包括如下步骤:The full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-factor matching includes the following steps:

在预算校检过程前,进行成本数据的风险评估,得到第一数据,所述第一数据包括设备更新数据;Before the budget checking process, a risk assessment of cost data is performed to obtain first data, wherein the first data includes equipment update data;

将设备更新数据通过三维坐标轴转换为图像数据,并将图像数据绘制成曲线,并对曲线通过聚类分析进行特征提取;The device update data is converted into image data through a three-dimensional coordinate axis, and the image data is plotted into a curve, and features are extracted from the curve through cluster analysis;

根据提取的特征进行聚类分析,将曲线划分为不同的聚类簇;Cluster analysis is performed based on the extracted features to divide the curves into different clusters;

依据不同的聚类簇相乘计算设备更新影响系数;Calculate the device update impact coefficient by multiplying different clusters;

基于所述设备更新影响系数建立成本风险评估模型,计算成本校验风险指数;Establishing a cost risk assessment model based on the equipment update impact coefficient and calculating a cost verification risk index;

基于成本校验风险指数进行预算校验风险分析,判断将要进行的预算校验是否存在校验准确性不足的风险,若存在则进行风险管控。Conduct budget verification risk analysis based on the cost verification risk index to determine whether the upcoming budget verification has a risk of insufficient verification accuracy. If so, perform risk management.

本发明基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法的技术效果和优点:The technical effects and advantages of the full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-factor matching of the present invention are as follows:

1.本发明通过数据驱动的方法,利用历史数据和统计分析手段,如蒙特卡洛模拟、多元线性回归模型模型、聚类分析等,能够准确识别和量化成本波动风险、技术风险以及供应链问题风险,为项目管理者提供实用的预算校验准确性评估和风险管理策略,从而有效提高预算校验的准确性和稳定性,为项目顺利实施和成本控制提供有力支持。1. The present invention uses data-driven methods, historical data and statistical analysis methods, such as Monte Carlo simulation, multivariate linear regression model, cluster analysis, etc., to accurately identify and quantify cost fluctuation risks, technical risks and supply chain problem risks, and provide project managers with practical budget verification accuracy assessment and risk management strategies, thereby effectively improving the accuracy and stability of budget verification, and providing strong support for the smooth implementation of projects and cost control.

2.本发明通过利用预设的各项风险系数比例,包括供应链问题、设备更新影响、人力资源波动以及设备材料价格波动异常等因素,综合考虑了多方面的成本风险因素。通过计算成本校验风险指数,可以对预算校验的风险程度进行量化评估,从而有效地判断预算校验是否存在准确性不足的风险,其定量化评估的特点使得对风险程度的把握更加准确,而基于预设波动阈值的风险标记和管控策略则确保了风险管理的及时性和灵活性,为有效的成本校验提供了有力支持。2. The present invention comprehensively considers various cost risk factors by utilizing preset risk coefficient ratios, including supply chain issues, equipment update impacts, human resource fluctuations, and abnormal fluctuations in equipment and material prices. By calculating the cost verification risk index, the risk level of budget verification can be quantitatively evaluated, thereby effectively determining whether there is a risk of insufficient accuracy in budget verification. The quantitative evaluation feature makes the grasp of the risk level more accurate, and the risk marking and management strategy based on the preset fluctuation threshold ensures the timeliness and flexibility of risk management, providing strong support for effective cost verification.

附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

图1为本发明基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法结构示意图。FIG1 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a full-caliber budget verification method for construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to the present invention.

具体实施方式DETAILED DESCRIPTION

下面将结合本发明实施例中的附图,对本发明实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整的描述,显然,所描述的实施例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例,而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例,本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例,都属于本发明保护的范围。The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

实施例1,图1给出了本发明基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,包括如下步骤:Embodiment 1, FIG1 shows a method for verifying the full-caliber budget of a construction drawing based on full-factor matching of the present invention, comprising the following steps:

S10,在预算校检过程前,进行成本数据的风险评估,得到第一数据,所述第一数据包括设备更新数据;S11,将设备更新数据通过三维坐标轴转换为图像数据,并将图像数据绘制成曲线,并对曲线通过聚类分析进行特征提取;S12,根据提取的特征进行聚类分析,将曲线划分为不同的聚类簇;S13,依据不同的聚类簇相乘计算设备更新影响系数;S14,基于所述设备更新影响系数建立成本风险评估模型,计算成本校验风险指数;S15,基于成本校验风险指数进行预算校验风险分析,判断将要进行的预算校验是否存在校验准确性不足的风险,若存在则进行风险管控。S10, before the budget verification process, perform a risk assessment on the cost data to obtain first data, wherein the first data includes equipment update data; S11, convert the equipment update data into image data through a three-dimensional coordinate axis, plot the image data into a curve, and extract features from the curve through cluster analysis; S12, perform cluster analysis based on the extracted features, and divide the curve into different clusters; S13, calculate the equipment update impact coefficient by multiplying different clusters; S14, establish a cost risk assessment model based on the equipment update impact coefficient, and calculate the cost verification risk index; S15, perform a budget verification risk analysis based on the cost verification risk index to determine whether the budget verification to be performed has a risk of insufficient verification accuracy, and if so, perform risk management.

其中,成本校验风险指数的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the cost verification risk index is as follows:

式中,为成本校验风险指数,为供应链风险系数的预设比例系数,为设备更新影响系数的预设比例系数,为人力资源波动系数的预设比例系数,为设备材料价格波动异常系数的预设比例系数,为成本校验风险指数,为供应链风险系数,为设备更新影响系数,为人力资源波动系数,为设备材料价格波动异常系数。In the formula, is the cost verification risk index, is the preset proportional coefficient of the supply chain risk factor, The preset scaling factor for the device update impact factor, is the preset proportional coefficient of the human resource fluctuation coefficient, It is the preset proportional coefficient of the abnormal coefficient of equipment and material price fluctuation. is the cost verification risk index, is the supply chain risk factor, is the equipment update impact coefficient, is the human resource fluctuation coefficient, It is the abnormal coefficient of equipment and material price fluctuation.

设备材料价格波动系数对分析预算校验准确性的作用和影响如下:The effects and impacts of equipment and material price fluctuation coefficient on the accuracy of budget analysis and verification are as follows:

准确性评估:价格波动系数反映了设备和材料价格的波动程度,较高的波动系数意味着价格变动较大,较低的波动系数则表示价格相对稳定。根据波动系数的大小,可以对预算校验的准确性进行初步评估。较低的波动系数通常意味着较高的预算校验准确性,而较高的波动系数则可能引发更大的预算偏差。Accuracy assessment: The price fluctuation coefficient reflects the degree of fluctuation of equipment and material prices. A higher fluctuation coefficient means a larger price change, while a lower fluctuation coefficient means a relatively stable price. Based on the size of the fluctuation coefficient, a preliminary assessment of the accuracy of budget verification can be made. A lower fluctuation coefficient usually means a higher budget verification accuracy, while a higher fluctuation coefficient may cause a greater budget deviation.

风险把控:波动系数是衡量成本风险的重要指标之一。当波动系数较高时,意味着价格波动的风险也相应增加,这可能会导致预算校验的不确定性增加。因此,对于价格波动系数较高的设备和材料,需要加强风险把控,采取相应的应对策略,以减轻预算校验的不确定性。Risk control: The coefficient of fluctuation is one of the important indicators for measuring cost risk. When the coefficient of fluctuation is high, it means that the risk of price fluctuations also increases accordingly, which may lead to increased uncertainty in budget verification. Therefore, for equipment and materials with high price fluctuation coefficients, it is necessary to strengthen risk control and adopt corresponding response strategies to reduce the uncertainty of budget verification.

预算调整策略:根据设备和材料价格波动系数的大小,可以制定不同的预算调整策略。对于波动系数较低的设备和材料,可以采取相对稳定的预算管理策略;而对于波动系数较高的设备和材料,则需要更加灵活的预算调整策略,及时调整预算以应对价格波动带来的风险。Budget adjustment strategy: Different budget adjustment strategies can be formulated according to the price fluctuation coefficient of equipment and materials. For equipment and materials with low fluctuation coefficients, a relatively stable budget management strategy can be adopted; while for equipment and materials with high fluctuation coefficients, a more flexible budget adjustment strategy is required to adjust the budget in time to cope with the risks brought by price fluctuations.

因此,分析设备材料价格波动系数可及时发现成本波动风险导致的全口径预算校验的准确性和稳定性不足的风险。Therefore, analyzing the price fluctuation coefficient of equipment and materials can timely discover the risks of insufficient accuracy and stability of full-caliber budget verification caused by cost fluctuation risks.

所述设备材料价格波动异常系数的具体获取方法如下:The specific method for obtaining the abnormal coefficient of equipment and material price fluctuation is as follows:

获取各个设备和材料的价格,标号并建立材料价格集合,根据历史价格数据统计分析获得设备材料价格的平均对数和对数标准差,令设备和材料的价格符合正态分布,得到价格的概率密度函数;依据价格的概率密度函数生成符合该分布的多个随机数样本,标号并建立样本集合,进行分析计算获得设备材料价格波动系数,并与预设的设备材料价格波动预期值进行比较分析,获得设备材料价格波动异常系数;Obtain the price of each equipment and material, label and establish a material price set, obtain the average logarithm and logarithmic standard deviation of the equipment and material prices based on statistical analysis of historical price data, make the prices of equipment and materials conform to the normal distribution, and obtain the probability density function of the price; generate multiple random number samples that conform to the distribution based on the probability density function of the price, label and establish a sample set, perform analysis and calculation to obtain the equipment and material price fluctuation coefficient, and compare and analyze with the preset equipment and material price fluctuation expected value to obtain the equipment and material price fluctuation abnormality coefficient;

所述价格的概率密度函数的具体公式如下:The specific formula of the probability density function of the price is as follows:

所述设备材料价格波动异常系数的计算公式如下:The calculation formula for the abnormal coefficient of equipment and material price fluctuation is as follows:

式中,为设备材料价格,为设备材料价格的平均对数,为对数标准差,随机数样本,为样本总数,为随机数样本标号,为随机数样本均值,为设备材料价格波动预期值。In the formula, is the price of equipment and materials, is the average logarithm of equipment material prices, is the logarithmic standard deviation, A sample of random numbers, is the total number of samples, is the random number sample label, is the random number sample mean, It is the expected value of equipment and material price fluctuation.

需要说明的是本方法是一种基于概率统计的数值计算方法,通过对随机变量进行多次抽样来模拟系统的行为;在计算设备材料价格波动系数时,可以使用蒙特卡洛模拟来模拟价格的随机变动,并根据模拟结果计算波动系数。It should be noted that this method is a numerical calculation method based on probability statistics, which simulates the behavior of the system by sampling random variables multiple times; when calculating the price volatility coefficient of equipment materials, Monte Carlo simulation can be used to simulate the random changes in prices, and the volatility coefficient can be calculated based on the simulation results.

由设备材料价格波动异常系数的计算公式可知,当设备材料价格波动异常系数的表现值越大,则表明施工的材料设备价格波动越剧烈,成本风险越大,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越差;当设备材料价格波动异常系数的表现值越小,则表明施工的材料设备价格波动越稳定,成本风险越小,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越好。From the calculation formula of the equipment and material price fluctuation abnormal coefficient, it can be seen that when the performance value of the equipment and material price fluctuation abnormal coefficient is larger, it means that the price fluctuation of construction materials and equipment is more drastic, the cost risk is greater, and the accuracy and stability of budget verification is worse; when the performance value of the equipment and material price fluctuation abnormal coefficient is smaller, it means that the price fluctuation of construction materials and equipment is more stable, the cost risk is smaller, and the accuracy and stability of budget verification is better.

人力资源成本在电力建筑项目中扮演着至关重要的角色;受地区、技能水平和市场供求等多重因素影响,人力资源成本的波动和变动成为预算校验中不可忽视的因素;项目所在地区的经济发展水平、技能需求和供给情况直接影响着人力资源的成本水平;随着技能要求的提高和市场竞争的加剧,高技能人才的成本通常较高;同时,市场供求关系的变化也会引发人力资源成本的波动;因此,对人力资源成本的变动和波动进行准确的预测和评估,是确保预算准确性和稳定性的重要步骤,有助于项目管理者制定有效的成本控制策略。Human resource costs play a vital role in power construction projects. Affected by multiple factors such as region, skill level, and market supply and demand, fluctuations and changes in human resource costs have become factors that cannot be ignored in budget verification. The level of economic development, skill demand and supply in the project area directly affect the cost level of human resources. With the increase in skill requirements and the intensification of market competition, the cost of highly skilled talents is usually higher. At the same time, changes in market supply and demand will also cause fluctuations in human resource costs. Therefore, accurate prediction and evaluation of changes and fluctuations in human resource costs is an important step to ensure budget accuracy and stability, which helps project managers formulate effective cost control strategies.

所述人力资源波动系数对分析预算校验准确性的作用和影响如下:The role and impact of the human resource fluctuation coefficient on the accuracy of budget analysis and verification are as follows:

人力资源波动系数的分析能够提升成本预测的精度。通过对人力资源成本的历史数据和市场趋势进行综合分析,可以确定人力资源波动系数的趋势和变化幅度。这使得项目管理者能够更准确地预测未来人力资源成本的波动情况,从而在预算编制阶段更精确地考虑到这一因素,避免预算偏差。Analysis of the human resource fluctuation coefficient can improve the accuracy of cost forecasting. Through comprehensive analysis of historical data and market trends of human resource costs, the trend and range of changes in the human resource fluctuation coefficient can be determined. This enables project managers to more accurately predict future fluctuations in human resource costs, thereby more accurately considering this factor during the budget preparation stage and avoiding budget deviations.

人力资源波动系数的分析有助于识别和管理潜在的风险。高波动系数意味着人力资源成本的不稳定性较高,可能会对项目的成本控制和进度产生负面影响。通过及时监测和分析波动系数的变化,项目管理者能够更好地了解人力资源成本波动的潜在风险,并采取相应的风险管理措施,以确保项目的顺利进行。Analysis of the human resource fluctuation coefficient helps to identify and manage potential risks. A high fluctuation coefficient means that the instability of human resource costs is high, which may have a negative impact on the cost control and progress of the project. By timely monitoring and analyzing the changes in the fluctuation coefficient, project managers can better understand the potential risks of human resource cost fluctuations and take corresponding risk management measures to ensure the smooth progress of the project.

人力资源波动系数的分析为制定预算优化和成本控制策略提供了重要依据。根据波动系数的大小和趋势,项目管理者可以调整人力资源的配置和管理策略,以适应不同程度的成本波动。例如,在波动系数较高的情况下,可以采取更为灵活的成本控制措施,如加强预算监控、优化资源分配、提高人力资源管理效率等,以降低波动带来的负面影响,确保项目成本控制在合理范围内。The analysis of human resource fluctuation coefficient provides an important basis for the formulation of budget optimization and cost control strategies. According to the size and trend of the fluctuation coefficient, project managers can adjust the allocation and management strategy of human resources to adapt to different degrees of cost fluctuations. For example, in the case of a high fluctuation coefficient, more flexible cost control measures can be taken, such as strengthening budget monitoring, optimizing resource allocation, and improving human resource management efficiency, so as to reduce the negative impact of fluctuations and ensure that project costs are controlled within a reasonable range.

通过对人力资源波动系数的分析,项目管理者能够更准确地评估人力资源成本波动对项目的影响,并为决策提供支持。基于对波动系数的了解,可以制定更具针对性和有效性的决策措施,提升项目管理的效率和成本控制的效果,从而实现项目目标的顺利实现。By analyzing the human resource fluctuation coefficient, project managers can more accurately assess the impact of human resource cost fluctuations on projects and provide support for decision-making. Based on the understanding of the fluctuation coefficient, more targeted and effective decision-making measures can be formulated to improve the efficiency of project management and the effect of cost control, thereby achieving the smooth realization of project goals.

因此,因此,分析设备材料价格波动系数可及时发现成本波动风险导致的全口径预算校验的准确性和稳定性不足的风险。Therefore, analyzing the price fluctuation coefficient of equipment and materials can timely discover the risk of insufficient accuracy and stability of full-caliber budget verification caused by cost fluctuation risks.

人力资源波动系数的具体获取方法如下:The specific method for obtaining the human resource fluctuation coefficient is as follows:

获取影响人力资源成本的各种因素,标号并建立因素矩阵;建立人力资源成本的多元线性回归模型模型,并建立人力资源矩阵;使用最小二乘法来拟合多元线性回归模型模型,得到残差平方和最小化的回归模型系数;使用矩阵运算来计算人力资源波动系数;Obtain various factors that affect human resource costs, label them and establish a factor matrix; establish a multivariate linear regression model of human resource costs and a human resource matrix; use the least squares method to fit the multivariate linear regression model and obtain the regression model coefficients that minimize the residual sum of squares; use matrix operations to calculate the human resource volatility coefficient;

所述人力资源成本的多元线性回归模型模型如下:The multivariate linear regression model of human resource cost is as follows:

所述人力资源波动系数计算公式为:The calculation formula of the human resource fluctuation coefficient is:

式中,为人力资源成本,也为n*1的向量,n为数据点数量,为截距项,为回归模型系数,k为影响人力资源成本的各种因素的种类数量,为人力资源波动系数,为n*(k+1)的记录影响因素数据的矩阵。In the formula, is the human resource cost, which is also a vector of n*1, where n is the number of data points. is the intercept term, is the regression model coefficient, k is the number of factors that affect human resource costs, is the human resource fluctuation coefficient, It is a matrix of n*(k+1) recording influencing factor data.

需要说明的是,使用最小二乘法来拟合模型的目的是使得观测值与模型预测值之间的残差平方和最小化。It should be noted that the purpose of using the least squares method to fit the model is to minimize the sum of squares of the residuals between the observed values and the model predicted values.

由人力资源波动系数计算公式的计算公式可知,当人力资源波动系数的表现值越大,则表明人力资源成本波动越剧烈,成本风险越大,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越差;当人力资源波动系数的表现值越大,则表明人力资源成本波动越稳定,成本风险越小,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越好。It can be seen from the calculation formula of the human resource fluctuation coefficient that when the performance value of the human resource fluctuation coefficient is larger, it means that the human resource cost fluctuation is more drastic and the cost risk is greater, indicating that the accuracy and stability of the budget verification are worse; when the performance value of the human resource fluctuation coefficient is larger, it means that the human resource cost fluctuation is more stable and the cost risk is smaller, indicating that the accuracy and stability of the budget verification are better.

技术风险指的是由于电力工程涉及到复杂的技术和设备,如发电机、变压器、输电线路等,因此技术风险的发生可能对项目造成严重的影响;例如,在项目执行过程中,可能会出现技术问题或设备故障,导致工程无法按计划进行或者输出不符合标准的产品。为了应对这些问题,可能需要额外的成本用于修复或替换受影响的设备,重新进行工程设计或者采取其他应急措施。这些额外成本不仅可能导致项目成本超支,还可能延长项目的工期,增加项目的运营成本,并可能影响项目的质量和可靠性,因此技术风险的识别和管理对于确保项目成功完成和控制成本至关重要;Technical risk refers to the fact that power projects involve complex technologies and equipment, such as generators, transformers, transmission lines, etc., so the occurrence of technical risks may have a serious impact on the project; for example, during the execution of the project, technical problems or equipment failures may occur, resulting in the project being unable to proceed as planned or outputting substandard products. In order to deal with these problems, additional costs may be required to repair or replace the affected equipment, redesign the project, or take other emergency measures. These additional costs may not only lead to project cost overruns, but may also extend the project's duration, increase the project's operating costs, and may affect the quality and reliability of the project. Therefore, the identification and management of technical risks are crucial to ensuring the successful completion of the project and controlling costs;

所述设备更新影响系数对分析预算校验准确性的作用和影响如下:The effect and influence of the equipment update impact coefficient on the accuracy of the analysis budget verification are as follows:

提高准确性:设备更新通常意味着更高效、更先进的技术和设备,能够在电力工程项目中提高生产效率、降低成本;因此,如果设备更新的影响系数为正值,说明新技术的采用能够提高项目执行效率,降低成本,从而提高预算校验的准确性;Improve accuracy: Equipment updates usually mean more efficient and advanced technologies and equipment, which can improve production efficiency and reduce costs in power engineering projects. Therefore, if the impact coefficient of equipment updates is positive, it means that the adoption of new technologies can improve project execution efficiency and reduce costs, thereby improving the accuracy of budget verification.

降低风险:新技术的应用可能降低项目的技术风险和设备故障的可能性,因为新技术通常更可靠、更稳定。因此,设备更新影响系数的正值表明,新技术的引入能够降低项目执行过程中技术风险的发生概率,进而提高预算校验的准确性;Reduce risk: The application of new technology may reduce the technical risk of the project and the possibility of equipment failure, because new technology is usually more reliable and stable. Therefore, the positive value of the equipment update impact coefficient indicates that the introduction of new technology can reduce the probability of technical risks during project execution, thereby improving the accuracy of budget verification;

增加不确定性:尽管设备更新可能带来许多好处,但也可能引入新的不确定性因素。新技术的应用可能需要额外的培训、调试时间,或者面临技术集成的挑战;因此,设备更新影响系数的大小也反映了项目执行过程中不确定性的程度;较高的影响系数可能意味着项目预算校验的准确性受到了较大的不确定性影响;Increased uncertainty: Although equipment updates may bring many benefits, they may also introduce new uncertainties. The application of new technologies may require additional training and debugging time, or face challenges in technology integration; therefore, the size of the equipment update impact coefficient also reflects the degree of uncertainty in the project execution process; a higher impact coefficient may mean that the accuracy of the project budget verification is affected by greater uncertainty;

需求调整:设备更新可能改变项目需求,例如,新技术的应用可能需要重新设计工程流程或者调整项目范围;因此,设备更新影响系数也反映了项目需求的变化程度,这些变化可能会影响项目成本和预算校验的准确性;Demand adjustment: Equipment updates may change project requirements. For example, the application of new technologies may require redesigning engineering processes or adjusting project scope. Therefore, the equipment update impact coefficient also reflects the degree of change in project requirements, which may affect the accuracy of project costs and budget verification.

因此,分析设备更新影响系数可及时发现成本波动风险导致的全口径预算校验的准确性和稳定性不足的风险。Therefore, analyzing the impact coefficient of equipment updates can timely identify the risks of insufficient accuracy and stability of full-caliber budget verification caused by cost fluctuation risks.

所述设备更新影响系数的获取方法如下:The method for obtaining the equipment update impact coefficient is as follows:

收集不同电力技术的学习数据,所述学习数据包括学习成绩、评估分数、错误率;将学习数据通过三维坐标轴转换成技术学习图像数据,将每个学习数据绘制成一个学习曲线,对学习曲线通过聚类分析进行特征提取;根据提取的特征进行聚类分析,将学习曲线划分为不同的聚类簇;依据聚类簇计算设备更新影响系数;Collect learning data of different power technologies, the learning data including learning performance, evaluation score, and error rate; convert the learning data into technical learning image data through three-dimensional coordinate axes, draw each learning data into a learning curve, and extract features of the learning curve through cluster analysis; perform cluster analysis based on the extracted features and divide the learning curve into different clusters; calculate the equipment update impact coefficient based on the clusters;

所述依据聚类簇计算设备更新影响系数的方法为:计算每个样本在时间点上的学习效果相对于该聚类簇的平均学习效果的标准偏差,然后求平均,得到整体波动项;计算每个时间点上所有样本的学习效果相对于聚类簇的平均学习效果的标准偏差的平均值,得到学习曲线波动项;计算每个时间点上每个样本的学习效果的方差相对于该时间点聚类簇内所有样本学习效果方差的比值的平均值,得到局部波动项;The method for updating the influence coefficient according to the clustering cluster computing device is as follows: calculating the standard deviation of the learning effect of each sample at a time point relative to the average learning effect of the clustering cluster, and then averaging to obtain the overall fluctuation term; calculating the average value of the standard deviation of the learning effect of all samples at each time point relative to the average learning effect of the clustering cluster, to obtain the learning curve fluctuation term; calculating the average value of the ratio of the variance of the learning effect of each sample at each time point to the variance of the learning effect of all samples in the clustering cluster at that time point, to obtain the local fluctuation term;

所述整体波动项的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the overall fluctuation term is as follows:

所述学习曲线波动项的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the learning curve fluctuation term is as follows:

所述学习局部波动项的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the learning local fluctuation term is as follows:

所述设备更新影响系数的计算公式为:The calculation formula of the equipment update impact coefficient is:

式中,为设备更新影响系数,为整体波动项,为学习曲线波动项,为学习局部波动项,为聚类簇中的样本数量,为时间点的数量,为时间点标号,为第v个聚类簇中的第j个样本在时间点t的学习效果,为第v个聚类簇中所有样本在的时间点的平均学习效果;为第v个聚类簇中所有样本在所有时间的平均学习效果。In the formula, Update the impact coefficient for the device, is the overall fluctuation term, is the fluctuation term of the learning curve, To learn the local fluctuation term, is the number of samples in the cluster, is the number of time points, is the time point number, is the learning effect of the jth sample in the vth cluster at time point t, is the time point of all samples in the vth cluster The average learning effect of is the average learning effect of all samples in the vth cluster at all times.

需要说明的是,设备更新影响系数为该聚类簇对项目风险的贡献程度,根据学习曲线的形状、波动性、斜率特征进行计算;整体波动项,用以衡量每个样本相对于聚类簇整体的波动性;学习曲线波动项,用以衡量整体学习曲线的波动性;局部波动项,用以衡量每个时间点的波动性相对于整体波动性的比例。It should be noted that the equipment update impact coefficient is the contribution of the cluster to the project risk, which is calculated based on the shape, volatility, and slope characteristics of the learning curve; the overall volatility term is used to measure the volatility of each sample relative to the cluster as a whole; the learning curve volatility term is used to measure the volatility of the overall learning curve; the local volatility term is used to measure the ratio of the volatility at each time point to the overall volatility.

由设备更新影响系数计算公式的计算公式可知,当设备更新影响系数的表现值越大,则表明设备更新影响越迅速,成本风险越大,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越差;当设备更新影响系数的表现值越小,则表明设备更新影响越平稳,成本风险越小,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越好。It can be seen from the calculation formula of the equipment update impact coefficient that when the performance value of the equipment update impact coefficient is larger, it means that the impact of the equipment update is faster, the cost risk is greater, and the accuracy and stability of the budget verification are worse; when the performance value of the equipment update impact coefficient is smaller, it means that the impact of the equipment update is more stable, the cost risk is smaller, and the accuracy and stability of the budget verification are better.

供应链风险是指在供应链管理过程中可能发生的各种不确定性和突发事件,这些事件可能会影响到供应链的正常运作和业务目标的实现。其中,基于预算校验准确性的问题指的是在供应链中,预算校验的准确性受到多种因素的影响,如成本估算的准确性、货物运输和仓储成本的变动、供应商价格波动、汇率风险等。这些因素可能导致实际支出与预算不一致,进而影响企业的盈利能力和财务状况。管理者需要通过有效的风险管理和成本控制措施,以及提高预算校验的准确性,来应对供应链风险带来的挑战,确保供应链的稳定运作和业务的可持续发展;Supply chain risk refers to various uncertainties and emergencies that may occur in the process of supply chain management, which may affect the normal operation of the supply chain and the realization of business goals. Among them, the problem based on the accuracy of budget verification refers to the fact that in the supply chain, the accuracy of budget verification is affected by many factors, such as the accuracy of cost estimates, changes in cargo transportation and warehousing costs, supplier price fluctuations, exchange rate risks, etc. These factors may cause actual expenditures to be inconsistent with the budget, which in turn affects the profitability and financial status of the company. Managers need to respond to the challenges brought by supply chain risks through effective risk management and cost control measures, as well as improving the accuracy of budget verification, to ensure the stable operation of the supply chain and the sustainable development of the business;

所述供应链风险系数对分析预算校验准确性的作用和影响如下:The role and impact of the supply chain risk coefficient on the accuracy of budget analysis and verification are as follows:

识别潜在风险:供应链风险系数的计算过程涉及识别和量化供应链中的各种潜在问题和风险,如供应商延迟交货、原材料价格波动、运输损失等。通过分析风险系数,管理者可以更好地了解哪些方面可能会导致实际支出超出预算。Identify potential risks: The process of calculating the supply chain risk factor involves identifying and quantifying various potential problems and risks in the supply chain, such as supplier delays, raw material price fluctuations, transportation losses, etc. By analyzing the risk factor, managers can better understand which aspects may cause actual expenditures to exceed budgets.

量化风险影响:风险系数的值反映了各种风险对供应链的影响程度。较高的风险系数表示该风险对供应链运作的影响较大,可能导致更大程度的预算偏差。因此,供应链风险系数可以帮助管理者量化不同风险因素对预算校验准确性的影响程度。Quantify the impact of risk: The value of the risk factor reflects the impact of various risks on the supply chain. A higher risk factor means that the risk has a greater impact on the supply chain operation and may lead to a greater degree of budget deviation. Therefore, the supply chain risk factor can help managers quantify the impact of different risk factors on the accuracy of budget verification.

监控供应链稳定性:风险系数的变化趋势和水平可以反映供应链的稳定性和可靠性。管理者可以通过监控风险系数的变化情况及时发现供应链中可能存在的问题和风险,并采取相应的措施加以解决,以确保供应链的稳定运作和业务目标的实现。Monitor supply chain stability: The changing trend and level of the risk factor can reflect the stability and reliability of the supply chain. Managers can monitor the changes in the risk factor to promptly identify possible problems and risks in the supply chain and take appropriate measures to solve them, so as to ensure the stable operation of the supply chain and the realization of business goals.

调整预算校验策略:根据供应链风险系数的分析结果,管理者可以及时调整预算校验的策略和方法,以提高其准确性和有效性。例如,可以增加对高风险因素的关注程度,加强与供应商的沟通和合作,以降低风险影响,从而减少预算偏差的发生。Adjust budget verification strategy: Based on the analysis results of the supply chain risk coefficient, managers can timely adjust the budget verification strategy and methods to improve its accuracy and effectiveness. For example, they can increase the attention to high-risk factors and strengthen communication and cooperation with suppliers to reduce the impact of risks, thereby reducing the occurrence of budget deviations.

及时发现和应对潜在的预算偏差:通过分析供应链风险系数,管理者可以及时发现可能导致预算偏差的潜在问题,并采取相应的措施加以应对,以确保预算的准确性和可控性,保障企业财务目标的实现。Timely detection and response to potential budget deviations: By analyzing the supply chain risk factor, managers can promptly detect potential problems that may lead to budget deviations and take appropriate measures to respond to them, so as to ensure the accuracy and controllability of the budget and ensure the realization of the company's financial goals.

因此,分析供应链风险系数可及时发现成本波动风险导致的全口径预算校验的准确性和稳定性不足的风险。Therefore, analyzing the supply chain risk coefficient can timely discover the risks of insufficient accuracy and stability of full-caliber budget verification caused by cost fluctuation risks.

所述供应链风险系数的获取方法如下:The method for obtaining the supply chain risk coefficient is as follows:

通过历史各个供应商交货延迟情况进行统计计算得到供应商的平均交货延迟天数;通过平均库存和平均销售额分析计算得到库存周转率;通过对产品需求的历史数据进行统计计算产品需求的标准差;通过对运输过程中的损失率进行监控获得运输中的平均损失率;结合平均交货延迟天数、库存周转率、产品需求的标准差、平均损失率计算得到供应链风险系数;The average number of days of supplier delivery delays is calculated by statistical calculation based on the historical delivery delays of each supplier; the inventory turnover rate is calculated by analyzing the average inventory and average sales; the standard deviation of product demand is calculated by statistical calculation based on the historical data of product demand; the average loss rate in transportation is obtained by monitoring the loss rate during transportation; the supply chain risk coefficient is calculated by combining the average number of days of delivery delays, inventory turnover rate, standard deviation of product demand, and average loss rate;

所述供应链风险系数的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the supply chain risk coefficient is as follows:

式中,为供应商数量,为第z个供应商延迟的天数,为平均库存,为平均销售额,为产品需求的标准差,为平均损失率;In the formula, is the number of suppliers, is the number of days the z-th supplier is delayed, is the average inventory, is the average sales volume, is the standard deviation of product demand, is the average loss rate;

由供应链风险系数的计算公式可知,当供应链风险系数的表现值越大,则表明供应链问题风险越大,成本风险越高,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越差;当供应链风险系数的表现值越小,则表明供应链问题风险越小,成本风险越低,表明预算校验的准确性和稳定性越低。It can be seen from the calculation formula of the supply chain risk coefficient that when the performance value of the supply chain risk coefficient is larger, it indicates that the risk of supply chain problems is greater, the cost risk is higher, and the accuracy and stability of budget verification are worse; when the performance value of the supply chain risk coefficient is smaller, it indicates that the risk of supply chain problems is smaller, the cost risk is lower, and the accuracy and stability of budget verification are lower.

本实施例通过数据驱动的方法,利用历史数据和统计分析手段,如蒙特卡洛模拟、多元线性回归模型模型、聚类分析等,能够准确识别和量化成本波动风险、技术风险以及供应链问题风险,为项目管理者提供实用的预算校验准确性评估和风险管理策略,从而有效提高预算校验的准确性和稳定性,为项目顺利实施和成本控制提供有力支持。This embodiment uses a data-driven approach, historical data and statistical analysis methods, such as Monte Carlo simulation, multivariate linear regression model, cluster analysis, etc., to accurately identify and quantify cost fluctuation risks, technical risks and supply chain problem risks, and provide project managers with practical budget verification accuracy assessment and risk management strategies, thereby effectively improving the accuracy and stability of budget verification, and providing strong support for the smooth implementation of projects and cost control.

上述方案中,基于成本校验风险指数进行预算校验风险分析的具体为:In the above scheme, the specific steps for budget verification risk analysis based on cost verification risk index are as follows:

设定剧烈波动阈值,根据设定的剧烈波动阈值对成本校验风险指数对应的预算校验进行标记;将高于预设的剧烈波动阈值的成本校验风险指数对应的预算校验标记为高级风险校验并进行高级风险管控;将低于预设的稳定波动阈值的成本校验风险指数对应的预算校验标记为无风险校验;对其余情况的成本校验风险指数对应的预算进行持续监测。Set a severe fluctuation threshold, and mark the budget verification corresponding to the cost verification risk index according to the set severe fluctuation threshold; mark the budget verification corresponding to the cost verification risk index that is higher than the preset severe fluctuation threshold as advanced risk verification and perform advanced risk management; mark the budget verification corresponding to the cost verification risk index that is lower than the preset stable fluctuation threshold as risk-free verification; and continuously monitor the budgets corresponding to the cost verification risk index in other situations.

本实施例通过利用预设的各项风险系数比例,包括供应链问题、设备更新影响、人力资源波动以及设备材料价格波动异常等因素,综合考虑了多方面的成本风险因素。通过计算成本校验风险指数,可以对预算校验的风险程度进行量化评估,从而有效地判断预算校验是否存在准确性不足的风险,其定量化评估的特点使得对风险程度的把握更加准确,而基于预设波动阈值的风险标记和管控策略则确保了风险管理的及时性和灵活性,为有效的成本校验提供了有力支持。This embodiment takes into account various cost risk factors by using preset risk coefficient ratios, including supply chain issues, equipment update impact, human resource fluctuations, and abnormal equipment and material price fluctuations. By calculating the cost verification risk index, the risk level of budget verification can be quantitatively evaluated, thereby effectively judging whether there is a risk of insufficient accuracy in budget verification. The quantitative evaluation feature makes the grasp of the risk level more accurate, and the risk marking and control strategy based on the preset fluctuation threshold ensures the timeliness and flexibility of risk management, providing strong support for effective cost verification.

上述公式均是去量纲取其数值计算,公式是由采集大量数据进行软件模拟得到最近真实情况的一个公式,公式中的预设参数由本领域的技术人员根据实际情况进行设置。The above formulas are all dimensionless and numerical calculations. The formula is a formula for the most recent real situation obtained by collecting a large amount of data and performing software simulation. The preset parameters in the formula are set by technicians in this field according to actual conditions.

上述实施例,可以全部或部分地通过软件、硬件、固件或其他任意组合来实现。当使用软件实现时,上述实施例可以全部或部分地以计算机程序产品的形式实现。The above embodiments may be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, firmware or any other combination. When implemented by software, the above embodiments may be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product.

本领域普通技术人员可以意识到,结合本文中所公开的实施例描述的各示例的模块及算法步骤,能够以电子硬件,或者计算机软件和电子硬件的结合来实现。这些功能究竟以硬件还是软件方式来执行,取决于技术方案的特定应用和设计约束条件。专业技术人员可以对每个特定的应用来使用不同方法来实现所描述的功能,但是这种实现不应认为超出本申请的范围。Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the modules and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

另外,在本申请各个实施例中的各功能模块可以集成在一个处理模块中,也可以是各个模块单独物理存在,也可以两个或两个以上模块集成在一个模块中。In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the present application may be integrated into one processing module, or each module may exist physically separately, or two or more modules may be integrated into one module.

以上所述,仅为本申请的具体实施方式,但本申请的保护范围并不局限于此,任何熟悉本技术领域的技术人员在本申请揭露的技术范围内,可轻易想到变化或替换,都应涵盖在本申请的保护范围之内。因此,本申请的保护范围应以所述权利要求的保护范围为准。The above is only a specific implementation of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art who is familiar with the present technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed in the present application, which should be included in the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

最后:以上所述仅为本发明的优选实施例而已,并不用于限制本发明,凡在本发明的精神和原则之内,所做的任何修改、等同替换、改进等,均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。Finally: The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (8)

1.基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,包括如下步骤:1. A method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching, characterized in that it comprises the following steps: 在预算校检过程前,进行成本数据的风险评估,得到第一数据,所述第一数据包括设备更新数据;Before the budget checking process, a risk assessment of cost data is performed to obtain first data, wherein the first data includes equipment update data; 将设备更新数据通过三维坐标轴转换为图像数据,并将图像数据绘制成曲线,并对曲线通过聚类分析进行特征提取;The device update data is converted into image data through a three-dimensional coordinate axis, and the image data is plotted into a curve, and features are extracted from the curve through cluster analysis; 根据提取的特征进行聚类分析,将曲线划分为不同的聚类簇;Cluster analysis is performed based on the extracted features to divide the curves into different clusters; 依据不同的聚类簇计算设备更新影响系数;Update the impact coefficient based on different clustering calculation devices; 所述设备更新影响系数的具体获取方法为:The specific method for obtaining the equipment update impact coefficient is: 收集不同电力技术的学习数据,所述学习数据包括学习成绩、评估分数、错误率;Collecting learning data of different power technologies, wherein the learning data includes learning performance, evaluation scores, and error rates; 计算每个样本在时间点上的学习效果相对于曲线划分对应的聚类簇的平均学习效果的标准偏差,然后求平均,得到整体波动项;Calculate the standard deviation of the learning effect of each sample at a time point relative to the average learning effect of the cluster corresponding to the curve division, and then average them to obtain the overall fluctuation term; 计算每个时间点上所有样本的学习效果相对于聚类簇的平均学习效果的标准偏差的平均值,得到学习曲线波动项;Calculate the average value of the standard deviation of the learning effect of all samples at each time point relative to the average learning effect of the cluster cluster to obtain the fluctuation term of the learning curve; 计算每个时间点上每个样本的学习效果的方差相对于该时间点聚类簇内所有样本学习效果方差的比值的平均值,得到局部波动项;Calculate the average value of the ratio of the variance of the learning effect of each sample at each time point to the variance of the learning effect of all samples in the cluster at that time point to obtain the local fluctuation term; 将整体波动项、学习曲线波动项、局部波动项相乘计算得到设备更新影响系数;The overall fluctuation term, the learning curve fluctuation term, and the local fluctuation term are multiplied together to obtain the equipment update impact coefficient; 基于所述设备更新影响系数建立成本风险评估模型,计算成本校验风险指数;Establishing a cost risk assessment model based on the equipment update impact coefficient and calculating a cost verification risk index; 所述成本校验风险指数的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the cost verification risk index is as follows: 式中,为成本校验风险指数,为供应链风险系数的预设比例系数,为设备更新影响系数的预设比例系数,为人力资源波动系数的预设比例系数,为设备材料价格波动异常系数的预设比例系数,为成本校验风险指数,为供应链风险系数,为设备更新影响系数,为人力资源波动系数,为设备材料价格波动异常系数;In the formula, is the cost verification risk index, is the preset proportional coefficient of the supply chain risk factor, The preset scaling factor for the device update impact factor, is the preset proportional coefficient of the human resource fluctuation coefficient, It is the preset proportional coefficient of the abnormal coefficient of equipment and material price fluctuation. is the cost verification risk index, is the supply chain risk factor, Update the impact coefficient for the device, is the human resource fluctuation coefficient, is the abnormal coefficient of equipment and material price fluctuation; 基于成本校验风险指数进行预算校验风险分析,判断将要进行的预算校验是否存在校验准确性不足的风险,若存在则进行风险管控。Conduct budget verification risk analysis based on the cost verification risk index to determine whether the upcoming budget verification has a risk of insufficient verification accuracy. If so, perform risk management. 2.根据权利要求1所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述基于成本校验风险指数进行预算校验风险分析的具体为:2. According to the method for full-caliber budget verification of construction drawings based on full-factor matching in claim 1, it is characterized in that the budget verification risk analysis based on the cost verification risk index is specifically: 设定剧烈波动阈值,根据设定的剧烈波动阈值对成本校验风险指数对应的预算校验进行标记;Set a severe fluctuation threshold, and mark the budget verification corresponding to the cost verification risk index according to the set severe fluctuation threshold; 将高于预设的剧烈波动阈值的成本校验风险指数对应的预算校验标记为高级风险校验并进行高级风险管控;The budget check corresponding to the cost check risk index that is higher than the preset severe fluctuation threshold is marked as a high-level risk check and high-level risk management and control is performed; 将低于预设的稳定波动阈值的成本校验风险指数对应的预算校验标记为无风险校验;The budget check corresponding to the cost check risk index below the preset stable fluctuation threshold is marked as a risk-free check; 对其余情况的成本校验风险指数对应的预算进行持续监测。The budget corresponding to the cost verification risk index for other situations is continuously monitored. 3.根据权利要求2所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述设备材料价格波动异常系数,具体获取步骤如下:3. The method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to claim 2 is characterized in that the abnormal coefficient of price fluctuation of equipment and materials is obtained by the following specific steps: 获取各个设备和材料的价格,并进行标号建立材料价格集合;Obtain the prices of various equipment and materials, and label them to create a material price collection; 根据历史价格数据统计分析获得设备材料价格的平均对数和对数标准差;令设备和材料的价格符合正态分布,得到价格的概率密度函数;The average logarithm and logarithmic standard deviation of equipment and material prices are obtained based on statistical analysis of historical price data; the prices of equipment and materials are made to conform to normal distribution, and the probability density function of prices is obtained; 依据价格的概率密度函数生成符合所述正态分布的多个随机数样本,并建立样本集合,并结合设备材料价格的平均对数和对数标准差分析计算获得设备材料价格波动系数;Generate multiple random number samples that conform to the normal distribution according to the probability density function of the price, establish a sample set, and calculate and analyze the equipment and material price fluctuation coefficient in combination with the average logarithm and logarithmic standard deviation of the equipment and material prices; 将设备材料价格波动系数与预设的设备材料价格波动预期值进行比较分析,获得设备材料价格波动异常系数。Compare and analyze the equipment and material price fluctuation coefficient with the preset equipment and material price fluctuation expected value to obtain the equipment and material price fluctuation abnormal coefficient. 4.根据权利要求2所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述人力资源波动系数的具体计算方法为:4. The method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to claim 2 is characterized in that the specific calculation method of the human resource fluctuation coefficient is: 获取影响人力资源成本的影响因素建立因素矩阵;Obtain the factors that affect human resource costs and establish a factor matrix; 根据结合因素矩阵以及结合人力资源成本的多元线性回归模型模型,建立人力资源矩阵;According to the combined factor matrix and the multivariate linear regression model combined with human resource cost, a human resource matrix is established; 使用最小二乘法来拟合人力资源矩阵,得到残差平方和最小化的回归模型系数;Use the least squares method to fit the human resource matrix and obtain the regression model coefficients that minimize the residual sum of squares; 根据残差平方和最小化的回归模型系数使用矩阵运算计算人力资源波动系数。The coefficient of human resource volatility is calculated using matrix operations based on the coefficients of the regression model that minimizes the residual sum of squares. 5.根据权利要求2所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述供应链风险系数的具体计算方法如下:5. The method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to claim 2 is characterized in that the specific calculation method of the supply chain risk coefficient is as follows: 通过历史各个供应商交货延迟情况进行统计计算得到供应商的平均交货延迟天数;The average number of days of supplier delivery delay is obtained by statistically calculating the historical delivery delays of each supplier; 通过平均库存和平均销售额分析计算得到库存周转率;Inventory turnover ratio is calculated by analyzing average inventory and average sales; 通过对产品需求的历史数据进行统计计算产品需求的标准差;Calculate the standard deviation of product demand by statistically analyzing the historical data of product demand; 通过对运输过程中的损失率进行监控获得运输中的平均损失率;By monitoring the loss rate during transportation, the average loss rate during transportation is obtained; 结合平均交货延迟天数、库存周转率、产品需求的标准差、平均损失率计算得到供应链风险系数。The supply chain risk coefficient is calculated by combining the average delivery delay days, inventory turnover rate, standard deviation of product demand, and average loss rate. 6.根据权利要求3所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述价格的概率密度函数的具体公式如下:6. The method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to claim 3 is characterized in that the probability density function of the price The specific formula is as follows: 所述设备材料价格波动异常系数的计算公式如下:The abnormal coefficient of price fluctuation of equipment and materials The calculation formula is as follows: 式中,为设备材料价格,为设备材料价格的平均对数,为对数标准差,随机数样本,为样本总数,为随机数样本标号,为随机数样本均值,为设备材料价格波动预期值。In the formula, is the price of equipment and materials, is the average logarithm of equipment material prices, is the logarithmic standard deviation, A sample of random numbers, is the total number of samples, is the random number sample label, is the random number sample mean, It is the expected value of equipment and material price fluctuation. 7.根据权利要求4所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述人力资源成本的多元线性回归模型模型如下:7. The method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to claim 4 is characterized in that the multivariate linear regression model of the human resource cost is as follows: 所述人力资源波动系数计算公式为:The calculation formula of the human resource fluctuation coefficient is: 式中,为人力资源成本,也为n*1的向量,n为数据点数量,为截距项,为回归模型系数,k为影响人力资源成本的各种因素的种类数量,为人力资源波动系数,为n*(k+1)的记录影响因素数据的矩阵。In the formula, is the human resource cost, which is also a vector of n*1, where n is the number of data points. is the intercept term, is the regression model coefficient, k is the number of factors that affect human resource costs, is the human resource fluctuation coefficient, It is a matrix of n*(k+1) recording influencing factor data. 8.根据权利要求5所述的基于全要素匹配的施工图全口径预算校验方法,其特征在于,所述整体波动项的计算公式如下:8. The method for verifying the full-caliber budget of construction drawings based on full-factor matching according to claim 5 is characterized in that the calculation formula of the overall fluctuation term is as follows: 所述学习曲线波动项的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the learning curve fluctuation term is as follows: 所述局部波动项的计算公式如下:The calculation formula of the local fluctuation term is as follows: 式中,为整体波动项,为学习曲线波动项,为学习局部波动项,为聚类簇中的样本数量,为时间点的数量,为时间点标号,为第v个聚类簇中的第j个样本在时间点t的学习效果,为第v个聚类簇中所有样本在的时间点的平均学习效果;为第v个聚类簇中所有样本在所有时间的平均学习效果。In the formula, is the overall fluctuation term, is the fluctuation term of the learning curve, To learn the local fluctuation term, is the number of samples in the cluster, is the number of time points, is the time point number, is the learning effect of the jth sample in the vth cluster at time point t, is the time point of all samples in the vth cluster The average learning effect of is the average learning effect of all samples in the vth cluster at all times.
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