JP2000147140A - Method and apparatus for predicting earthquake occurrence - Google Patents

Abstract

(57) [Summary] [Issue] When? ,where? ， How big is it? Provided are a method and an apparatus that can predict whether an earthquake may occur. Based on data obtained from a barometer 2, a weather map information input unit 3, and a tide prediction data storage unit 7, a computer 1 calculates a predicted pressure difference value and a tide between a passed high pressure and a subsequent low pressure. By combining the prediction data, it is determined whether an “when”, “where”, “how large” earthquake will occur, and the earthquake occurrence prediction information is output to the display 4 or the printer 6.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for predicting occurrence of an earthquake.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventional earthquake prediction is only of the degree that a large earthquake may occur in a blank area where recent earthquake occurrence is small, such as the Tokai region, and its accuracy is extremely low. . Moreover, it was difficult to predict immediately before the earthquake. For this reason, the Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake, which caused the Great Hanshin Earthquake in January 1995, also occurred without prediction.

[0003] On the other hand, Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. Hei 3-15792 discloses a technique for predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake by comparing the change transition form of the combination of atmospheric pressure and tide before and after the past earthquake occurrence with the present transition form prediction. It has been described.

[0004]

With the conventional earthquake prediction technology, it is extremely difficult to predict an earthquake. Therefore, even if it is impossible to predict all earthquakes, if it is possible to predict the occurrence of an earthquake with a fairly high probability, it will make a great contribution to society.

The method described in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 3-15792 suggests an interesting direction, but predicts "where?" And "what magnitude?" Not yet.

An object of the present invention is to provide an earthquake occurrence prediction method and apparatus capable of predicting a time, place, and size at which an earthquake may occur with high accuracy.

[0007]

According to the method for predicting an earthquake occurrence according to the present invention, the maximum atmospheric pressure of a high pressure passing through a specific area is 10 or less.
When the pressure difference between the low pressure expected to pass a specific area after the high pressure is 15 hectopascals or more and the high pressure is 10 hectopascals or more and the time when an earthquake may occur is near, Judgment, predicting a specific time zone where the tidal high tide expected time zone and the low pressure transit time zone on the movement trajectory of the high pressure maximum pressure area overlap, and an earthquake occurs at the specific time zone in a specific area It is characterized in that it is determined that there is a possibility of occurrence.

The apparatus for predicting earthquake occurrence according to the present invention further comprises: a storage unit for tracking data of a movement trajectory in a high pressure maximum pressure region;
The storage unit for the data of the expected tide change situation, the input unit for the weather map information, and the predicted time period of the passage of the low pressure after passing the high pressure is predicted based on the weather map information. It is provided with a computer for calculating a place where an earthquake is likely to occur, a date and time, and a magnitude of the earthquake based on the data of the pressure difference value and the scheduled high tide time zone, and an output unit for outputting the calculated result. Features. The magnitude of the earthquake can be ranked according to the magnitude of the pressure difference. The scheduled high tide time zone is within two hours before and after the scheduled high tide time.

According to a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the lower limit of the highest pressure of the high pressure, which is predictive of earthquake occurrence, is 1015 hPa (hereinafter referred to as hPa).
This is the case above. The method of determining the date and time of the "when?" Earthquake in the prediction of the occurrence of an earthquake is 1000 from the highest pressure of the first high in a repetitive phenomenon prediction in which the high pressure in the atmosphere leaves and becomes a low pressure and then becomes a high pressure again.
A value obtained by multiplying the value obtained by subtracting hPa by 0.3 and centering on the date and time of one or more high tides that occur from the time of the atmospheric pressure dropping to the highest pressure of the next high pressure through the low pressure. Between 2 hours before and after.

It has been found that bedrock covering the earth's surface moves as a plate due to mantle convection. The Japanese archipelago rides on the Eurasian plate, with the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates moving down below. It is said that the entrance is a trench, the contact surface between the plates is a fault, and when the fault slips, an earthquake occurs. It is important to find slippery conditions and slippery conditions when a fault slips, and to find these conditions when an object slips because slippage will not start unless the maximum static friction force is exceeded. It is.

The present invention focuses on the fact that tides that are repeated daily affect marine rock. It does not affect continents or land. The movement of the Pacific Plate is the source of the mechanism that generates huge horizontal forces in conjunction with mantle convection.

[0012]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Prior to the description of the embodiments, the results of consideration on the mechanism of occurrence of an earthquake will be described.

The effect of the atmospheric pressure on the plate will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 1 is a sectional view schematically showing a land. It can be said that the land is formed of granitic layer and floats on basaltic layer due to density difference. There is a mantle beneath the basaltic layer and the density is higher. In FIG. 1, a portion higher than the sea level is a land. Here, the density (ρ) is expressed in units of g / cm ³ .

FIG. 2 shows a model in which the atmospheric pressure difference is replaced with granite. 27 h as the atmospheric pressure difference shown in FIG.
Pa (hectopascal) has a height of about 27 cm when replaced with a water column as shown in FIG. This is further shown in FIG.
When replaced with a granite column (density 2.7g / cm ³ ) like this
It will be 0 cm high. Therefore, as shown in d of FIG. 2, solution granite pillars basaltic (density 3.0 g / cm ³⁾ (Height 10c
Assuming that m) floats, the granite column floats on the basaltic surface, exposing 1 cm above and sinking 9 cm below the liquid level.

FIG. 3 shows a model in which granite columns are erected in a basaltic layer. Assuming that the height of the land is 1 km and the depth of the sea is 2 km, as shown in FIG.
It is sinking for 0.2 km. When a granite block with a height of 10 cm is further placed on the granite column as shown in FIG. 3B, the granite column sinks 9 cm in the basaltic layer and the land portion becomes 1 cm higher as shown in FIG. 3C.

As a result, if there is a pressure difference of 27 hPa, the land receives a force of sinking or floating by 9 cm in the basaltic layer. The amount of land sinking is proportional to the pressure difference value.

Next, the influence of the tide on the plate will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 4 shows plate fluctuations due to tides. In FIG. 4a, since the plate is heavier than the land,
It shows how the plate sinks below the land due to mantle convection. When the tide is high tide, the plate is held down by the weight of the seawater. As shown in FIG. 4B, at the time of low tide, the weight of seawater decreases and the plate rises accordingly. The arc is slightly arcuate, and the plate is replenished by mantle convection for the shortened length, and a new plate is born.
Then, as shown in FIG. 4c, when the tide becomes high again and the weight of the seawater increases, the plate is pressed down. The plate is
The extra part is pushed under the land to change from an arc like b to a straight line like c (on the other side, new rocks are wedge-shaped and fixed and do not move). In other words, the plate repeatedly moves like a scale insect every day due to the tide, and moves below the land around the high tide. It is said that they move about 5 to 10 cm a year.

FIG. 5 shows the force exerted by the gravity of seawater on the plate. The gravity OF of seawater is the horizontal direction OA of the plate,
It changes into a huge force as the component force of OB. This enormous force is at its maximum at high tide and acts to sink the plate below the land.

Next, deformation of the plate due to high pressure will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 6 shows a cross section of the boundary between the Japanese archipelago and the plate. Although the actual boundary surface has a complicated shape, it is simplified by a straight line for convenience. FIG. 6A shows a normal boundary state between the archipelago and the plate. The plate is pushed from the front to the back of the paper, but is stationary due to frictional force. FIG.
Indicates a state in which a high pressure with a pressure difference of 27 hPa is on the archipelago. Part of the archipelago is elastically deformed to the plate side and sinks 9 cm.
FIG. 6c shows a state in which the high pressure has left. The archipelago is restored to the state of a, but a part of the plate is not restored and a part of the boundary surface is broken. In that part, the frictional force is reduced and it becomes slippery, exceeding the maximum static frictional force and slipping, and an earthquake occurs.

Next, the atmospheric pressure and the tidal force exerted on the Japanese archipelago will be described. The following applies to the Japanese archipelago based on the principle of earthquake occurrence discussed in FIGS. 1 to 6.

FIG. 7 shows a cross section of the northeastern Japanese archipelago around 40 degrees north latitude. FIG. 7a shows the Japanese archipelago on the top of the Eurasian plate, and the Pacific plate is sinking below it. The sink is the Japan Trench. The boundary between the Eurasian and Pacific plates is a fault. When the Japanese archipelago is covered by atmospheric pressure, the weight of the atmospheric pressure is applied to the Japanese archipelago, and the faults between the plates increase in frictional force and become less slippery.

Next, as shown in FIG. 7B, after the atmospheric pressure moves over the Pacific Ocean, if the area is covered with a low pressure, the frictional force is reduced and the area becomes slippery. In addition, the Pacific plate receives a huge horizontal force at high tide, causing an earthquake when the maximum static friction force is exceeded. As shown in Fig. 7 (c), when the low pressure goes over the Pacific Ocean and the middle high pressure (atmospheric or small high pressure) moves about halfway to the Japanese archipelago, the Japanese archipelago becomes as if the boat floated in water. Thus, a tilting force is applied so that the Sea of Japan sinks and the Pacific Ocean rises.
At that time, the frictional force between the plates is reduced, so that an earthquake is likely to occur at high tide.

Next, a result of examining how the actual earthquake occurrence situation relates to the atmospheric pressure and the tide will be described.

FIG. 8 shows the maximum pressure value of the high pressure as the vertical axis,
It is a figure which plotted the actual occurrence situation of an earthquake with the pressure difference value with the pressure value of the next moving low pressure as the horizontal axis.
It can be seen that there is an earthquake when the maximum pressure of the high pressure is 1015 hPa (sea level pressure) or more and when the pressure difference value is 10 hPa or more. The higher the maximum atmospheric pressure value of the high pressure and the greater the value of the pressure difference, the greater the force and the amount of fluctuation applied to the plate, so that the probability of occurrence of an earthquake increases and the size of the generated earthquake increases. Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, etc. have unique earthquake occurrence patterns, so it is necessary to capture seismic patterns according to past occurrence situations.

Next, the actual occurrence of an earthquake due to the tide will be described with reference to FIG. Although there are various patterns in the tide, FIG. 9A shows a representative pattern of the tide. FIG. 9B shows a plot obtained by applying the occurrence of an earthquake to the tide over time. Earthquakes account for 42% of the total within two hours before and after, mainly at high tide. Also,
It can be seen that large earthquakes often occur at high tide. FIG.
C indicates an earthquake occurrence situation with respect to the tide level. The higher the tide, the more earthquakes occur, and large earthquakes also occur.
Earthquakes that occurred above the medium tide account for 82% of the total.

If an earthquake occurs due to a change in atmospheric pressure,
Since the atmospheric pressure fluctuates with the season, the earthquake has seasonality. FIG. 10 shows a one-year atmospheric pressure change in the Mito region.
The minimum pressure of each month is almost 1000 hPa or less throughout the year, but the maximum pressure is the lowest in July and the highest in December while rising every month. July is at its lowest point, falling again from January. Therefore, if the highest pressure of the high pressure continues to decrease every month, the pressure difference value also decreases every month. At lower pressures than the previous month, the power to sink the archipelago weakens monthly, losing the ability to generate earthquakes, and the period of accumulation of seismic energy. On the contrary 7
After the moon, if the air pressure is higher than the previous month, the pressure difference value also increases monthly. Therefore, the power to sink the archipelago increases monthly and gains the ability to generate earthquakes. From August to February of the following year, there is a possibility of a major earthquake. After that, the seismic energy accumulates again and is carried over to the next earthquake.

In summary, earthquakes have seasonality, and large earthquakes are likely to occur during the period from August to the next year's maximum atmospheric pressure (from autumn to winter). As can be seen in FIG. 8, the time of occurrence of the major earthquake is concentrated from autumn to winter. From autumn to winter,
As the weather front runs north-south and the level of air pressure moves clearly, it is the earthquake prediction season. From spring to summer,
This is a season unsuitable for earthquake prediction, because the weather front runs east and west, and the level of air pressure is not clear and the movement becomes complicated. These have different seasons and periods depending on each region, and therefore have seasonality according to the region.

From the foregoing, it can be seen that the combination of "atmospheric pressure" and "tide" triggers the occurrence of an earthquake.

There are two conditions for predicting an earthquake from a weather map. That is, (1) sea level pressure conversion value, 101
A high pressure of 5 hPa or more passes over the Japanese archipelago;
And (2) the pressure difference value between the next expected low pressure and the expected low pressure is 10
hPa or more.

Next, a method of predicting the occurrence of an earthquake will be described.

FIG. 11 shows a flowchart of the earthquake occurrence prediction. The earthquake prediction first looks for a high pressure likely to reach the Japanese archipelago from a weather map. If the high pressure reaches 1015 hPa or more when it reaches the Japanese archipelago, it is suitable for earthquake prediction. While tracking the movement of the high pressure, the prediction of earthquake occurrence will be started when it reaches the Japanese archipelago.

What is necessary here is a past / present weather chart and a future forecast weather chart. The forecast weather map for the future extends for several days and its accuracy is directly linked to the earthquake prediction. The predicted atmospheric pressure is read from the predicted weather map, and if the pressure difference from the low pressure reaching the high pressure next to the high pressure is 10 hPa or more, it is used for earthquake occurrence prediction.

When the data is completed, the "date and time" of the earthquake occurrence prediction is determined by the "when?" In the "where?" Decision routine, the "location" of the earthquake occurrence prediction is determined. In the "how much?" Judgment routine, the "size" of the earthquake occurrence prediction is determined. When the three elements of the earthquake occurrence prediction are completed, warnings and warnings based on the ranking are displayed on a display or printed by a printer. When "no earthquake" or "don't know", a message to that effect is displayed on the display.

FIG. 12 shows an earthquake occurrence prediction diagram. The fluctuation of the atmospheric pressure repeats a higher or lower pressure change of high pressure → low pressure → high pressure → low pressure. Since the pressure difference value h3 of the low pressure 1 with respect to the pressure value h2 of the high pressure 1 is 10 hPa or less, it is ignored. The pressure value h1 of the high pressure 2 reaches the highest measured pressure and is a starting point of the earthquake occurrence prediction.

In the predicted atmospheric pressure that falls with time, the vehicle enters the earthquake prediction area from the point A at the time of the descent pressure value h4 (h1 × 0.3). The range of the occurrence prediction area is low pressure 2
Through the atmospheric pressure difference value h5, and reaches the maximum atmospheric pressure value h6 of the high pressure 3.

In the earthquake occurrence area, it is not surprising that an earthquake occurs at any time. However, since there are four high tides on the second and third days according to the tide forecast, caution is required in the range of two hours before and after the high tide. . Especially at high tide on the afternoon of the 2nd and the morning of the 3rd,
An earthquake is likely to occur in line with atmospheric pressure fluctuations.

The pressure difference h5 between the high pressure 2 and the low pressure 2 for determining the magnitude of the earthquake is the largest factor for determining the probability of occurrence of the earthquake and the magnitude of the earthquake.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the handling of the effective period of the atmospheric pressure. After the pressure value h7 of the high pressure 4, the vehicle enters the earthquake occurrence warning area from the point B at which the pressure value becomes the descending pressure value h8, and reaches the maximum pressure value h12 of the high pressure 5 through the pressure difference value h9 from the low pressure 3.
In this case, the next earthquake must be predicted.

The atmospheric pressure starts to decrease from the high pressure 5 toward the expected minimum pressure 4, and the descending pressure value h10 is (h12 × 0.
If the pressure is smaller than the value of 3), the pressure lower than the pressure of the low pressure 3 with respect to the high pressure 4 becomes the first pressure value and enters the occurrence prediction area from the point C. When it is large, the point C is advanced accordingly.

The point C is determined and the maximum pressure value h15 of the high pressure 6
Pressure value h1 of high pressure 5 in the earthquake occurrence area up to
If an earthquake occurrence prediction is made based on the pressure difference h13 between 2 and the low pressure 4, a small earthquake prediction and a decrease in the probability of occurrence will be caused. In such a case, the pressure difference h14 of the low pressure 4 with respect to the high pressure 4 is used in consideration of the fact that h9 of the low pressure 3 is smaller than the high pressure 4 and the pressure difference value h11 remains. In this case, the latter prediction becomes a large earthquake occurrence prediction and the occurrence probability becomes higher than the former prediction.

The temporal determination from the tide forecast is expected to be at noon on the 9th, early in the morning on the 9th and around 1 pm, and early in the morning on the 11th. Be careful.

FIG. 14 is a diagram showing the judgment of “where?”.
As described in FIG. 6, an earthquake is likely to occur due to “deformation of the plate due to high pressure”. In particular, since the center of the high pressure exerts the maximum deformation of the plate, the place where the earthquake occurs can be predicted to be in the region of the movement locus within the highest pressure range of the high pressure.

In the case of FIG. 14, the highest atmospheric pressure range has left the Noto Peninsula over the Pacific Ocean through the southeastern Tohoku region. In this case, the prediction of the location of the earthquake occurrence is determined to be centered on the southern part of the Tohoku region, and that the Kanto region has a slight danger of an earthquake occurrence.

Actually, the seismic intensity 3 in the northwestern part of Chiba prefecture on December 6, 1997, the seismic intensity 2 near the Kozushima island, the seismic intensity 3 in the northwestern part of Chiba prefecture on December 7, and the seismic intensity 4 off the coast of Fukushima prefecture (Miyagi prefecture North)
Four earthquakes occurred. The Tohoku Shinkansen was also temporarily stopped.

FIG. 15 shows a prediction diagram of the magnitude of an earthquake, that is, “how large is it?”. In FIG. 15, the ranking is based on the earthquake occurrence status based on the high pressure value and the pressure difference value in FIG. If the pressure value of the high pressure is high and the pressure difference value is large, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake is high and a large earthquake occurs, so that the rank is large.

The ranking of the occurrence of earthquakes is only a rough guide and there are special cases. If the high pressure value is 1020 hPa or more and the pressure difference value is 20 hPa or more, the occurrence of a large earthquake of rank 4 or more must be considered. Must. When the high pressure value is 1015 hPa or less and the pressure difference value is 10 hPa or less, it is determined that there is no possibility of occurrence of an earthquake. Ranks 0 to 2 show no earthquake damage, and if the rank is 3 or higher, caution and caution are required, but if you are prepared, you do not have to be upset.

If the pressure value of the high pressure is low and the pressure difference value is large, a low pressure develops and it is a typhoon. Attention to the wind and rain increases, and it is necessary to match the attention to the earthquake ("-" in FIG. 15).

Hereinafter, an embodiment to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to an earthquake occurrence prediction device shown in FIG.

The earthquake occurrence prediction device shown in FIG. 16 has a built-in computer 1 programmed so as to be able to capture various data. The barometer 2 measures and collects atmospheric pressure data in real time, and transmits the result to the computer 1. Also, the weather map information of the Meteorological Agency at least once a day is input from the weather map information input unit 3 and stored in the storage unit of the computer 1. Accompanying this, the tracking data of the movement trajectory of the highest atmospheric pressure is stored in the storage unit. The data of the expected tide change situation (tide prediction data) is stored in the storage unit 7 in the computer in advance. When data for earthquake occurrence prediction is calculated by the computer 1 every predetermined time in accordance with an instruction from an operation panel (for example, a keyboard) 5 and it is determined that an earthquake may occur,
Earthquake prediction information including a place where an earthquake may occur, date and time, and size is output to the display 4 and / or the printer 6.

FIG. 17 is a flowchart for explaining the operation of the earthquake occurrence prediction device of FIG.

In FIG. 17, when the operation of predicting the occurrence of an earthquake is started, in step 11, the atmospheric pressure data from the past to the present time measured by the barometer 2 and stored in the storage unit is plotted, and the computer 1 Understands atmospheric pressure fluctuations. In step 12, weather map information is acquired for a plurality of days up to the present, and weather forecast for a plurality of future days is made based on the information. Thereby, the movement trajectory of the high pressure and the expected course of the subsequent low pressure are determined and plotted. These weather maps can be displayed on the display 4 over time as needed. In step 13, a plurality of days are grasped from a forecast weather chart for predicting a change in atmospheric pressure.

Next, at step 14, the predicted data of the tide change paper condition is plotted for a plurality of days in the past, present and future to grasp the tide fluctuation situation, and at step 15, the data obtained by combining the atmospheric pressure and the tide is obtained. Plot for the past, present and future for multiple days. In step 16, when the weather map, the atmospheric pressure, and the tide data are prepared for the past, present, and future for a plurality of days, the possibility of occurrence of an earthquake is calculated.
In step 17, the possibility of occurrence of an earthquake and the magnitude rank of the earthquake are determined. If there is a possibility of occurrence of an earthquake, the process proceeds to step 18, where earthquake occurrence prediction information is output to the display 4 and the printer 6. If there is a possibility of a large-scale earthquake, a warning or warning for earthquake prediction can be issued.

Next, an earthquake occurrence prediction result to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 18 is a graph showing the results of 19 used for actual prediction.
It is a weather map from February 16, 1998 to February 21, 1998. The high pressure of 1036 hPa that occurred on the continent on February 16, 1998, three days before the forecast date, moved,
Since the Japanese archipelago was covered on March 18, it was determined that there was a possibility of an earthquake. Since high pressure generally drops when moving from the continent to the sea, it is necessary to watch the transition until it reaches the Japanese archipelago. However, in the case of FIG. 18, since the high pressure moved to Noto Peninsula on February 18 while maintaining the power, it was necessary to start prediction of the occurrence of the earthquake. In the average year, the maximum pressure in February was 1030 hPa or less, but the high pressure moved to 1036 hPa. At this point, there was a danger of an earthquake. On February 19, the anticipated high pressure will move off the Kanto coast, and the low pressure coming from western Kyushu will be 1
It was assumed to develop below 000 hPa. in this case,
The difference value of the atmospheric pressure was 36 hPa, and there was a danger of an earthquake having a seismic intensity of 3 to 4. The predicted occurrence date is determined by when the low pressure passes.

The date and time of the occurrence of the earthquake were 2
Since it was finally determined that the period was between the 20th and the 22nd of February and within 2 hours before and after the high tide, the prediction result was reported on the 19th of February. The report destinations are the Fire and Disaster Prevention Division of Ibaraki Prefecture, Mito Branch of Yomiuri Shimbun and Hitachinaka Branch of Ibaraki Shimbun.

FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram for predicting the occurrence of the “Where?” Earthquake. FIG.
8 shows a movement trajectory of the maximum atmospheric pressure range of the high pressure according to FIG. FIG.
Since 9, earthquakes are most likely to occur in the area from the Noto Peninsula to the Kanto region. Some areas in the Tohoku region have potential.

FIG. 20 is a diagram showing the prediction result and the subsequent situation. That is, FIG. 20 is a diagram in which the earthquake occurrence result is written in a relation diagram between the atmospheric pressure and the tide in the Mito region.

As predicted based on the present invention, there was an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 1 on February 20 on Kozushima and a seismic intensity of 4 on February 21 in the Chuetsu region, and the time of occurrence was hit by an error of 31 minutes delay. This prediction result indicates that it corresponds to the prediction method of FIG.

FIG. 21 is a diagram showing a study of the Chiba-ken Toho-oki earthquake (December 17, 1987) that occurred in the past. This earthquake is an optimal example of the prediction method of FIG. That is,
On December 8, 1987, the high pressure of 1035 hPa left some reserve. Further, the effective period is up to a low pressure of 1015 hPa or less. Seismic intensity 2 on February 10 Seismic intensity 2, 2 on February 13
There is an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 1 on March 14, and it is in the predicted form. High pressure of 1028 hPa on February 14 and 2
Since the low pressure of 1008 hPa on the 16th of the month has a pressure difference of 27 hPa, according to the present invention, the occurrence of a large earthquake is predicted mainly on the high tide on the 16th or 17th of February.

In this case, as a result, at the time of high tide on February 17, a large earthquake with a seismic intensity of 5, which caused damage to the Chiba prefecture region, occurred.

According to FIG. 21, since six out of seven earthquakes occur almost at the time of high tide, it is clear that high tide requires caution and the probability of earthquake occurrence is high.

FIG. 22 shows the results from November 1997 to 199.
Ten examples of the results of the prediction of the occurrence of an earthquake by applying the present invention until April 2008 are shown. All earthquakes occurred as expected. As shown in No. 3 in FIG. 22, there is also an example in which four earthquake occurrences are recorded by one prediction.

[0066]

According to the present invention, the occurrence of an earthquake can be predicted several days before, so that safety measures can be taken and the disaster can be minimized. It also has the effect of eliminating people's anxiety about the earthquake and preventing panic.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of a cross-sectional example of land.

FIG. 2 is an explanatory view of a model of an atmospheric pressure difference and a granite column.

FIG. 3 is an up-and-down diagram of a Hanaoka rock column in a basaltic layer.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram of plate fluctuation due to tide.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram of a force exerted on a plate by gravity of seawater.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a cross section of a boundary between the Japanese archipelago and a plate.

FIG. 7 is a cross-sectional view of the northeastern Japanese archipelago.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a relationship between atmospheric pressure and an actual earthquake occurrence situation.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a relationship between a tide and an actual earthquake occurrence situation.

FIG. 10 is a one-year atmospheric pressure fluctuation map in the Mito region.

FIG. 11 is a flowchart of an earthquake occurrence prediction.

FIG. 12 is an earthquake occurrence prediction diagram.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing how the atmospheric pressure valid period is handled.

FIG. 14 is a diagram for determining a location where an earthquake occurs.

FIG. 15 is an earthquake magnitude prediction diagram.

FIG. 16 is a schematic configuration diagram of an earthquake occurrence prediction device.

FIG. 17 is a flowchart of the operation of the earthquake occurrence prediction device.

FIG. 18 is a weather chart actually used for prediction.

FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram of an earthquake occurrence location prediction.

FIG. 20 is a diagram showing an earthquake occurrence prediction result and a subsequent state.

FIG. 21 is a study diagram of an earthquake (1987) that occurred in the past.

FIG. 22 is a diagram of an earthquake prediction result.

[Explanation of symbols]

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Computer, 2 ... Barometer, 3 ... Weather map information input part, 4 ... Display, 5 ... Operation panel, 6 ... Printer, 7 ... Tidal forecast data storage part.

Claims (4)

[Claims] 1. A high pressure value of a high pressure in a specific area where a high pressure has passed is equal to or more than 1015 hPa, and a pressure between the low pressure and the high pressure which is expected to pass through the specific area after the high pressure. Based on the difference being 10 hectopascals or more, it is determined that the time when an earthquake may occur is near, and the scheduled tide high tide time and the low pressure transit time on the movement locus of the high pressure maximum pressure region are An earthquake occurrence prediction method, wherein a specific overlapping time zone is predicted, and it is determined that an earthquake may occur in the specific time zone in the specific area. 2. A method according to claim 1, wherein the magnitude of the earthquake is ranked according to the magnitude of the pressure difference. 3. The method for predicting an earthquake occurrence according to claim 1, wherein the scheduled high tide time zone is within two hours before and after the scheduled high tide time. 4. A storage unit for tracking data of a movement trajectory of a maximum atmospheric pressure region of a high pressure, a storage unit for data on a tide change expected situation, an input unit for weather map information, and the passage of the high pressure based on the weather map information. Predicts the expected time of passage of the subsequent low pressure and predicts the location, date, time and magnitude of the earthquake based on the data of the pressure difference between the high pressure and the low pressure and the scheduled high tide time And an output unit for outputting the result of the calculation.