Clean Energy Transition

This is twenty four years of electricity. The legacy of a single plant that quietly delivered 5 terawatt-hours per year to the grid, year after year, for over two decades. Today, every gram of its spent fuel rests securely in 64 dry casks on an 4.5 hectare pad in rural Maine. Critics often point to the “nuclear waste problem.” Here it is. Visible, stable, monitored. Unlike the gigatons of carbon we bury in the atmosphere with fossil fuels, nuclear waste stays put, and it’s engineered to do so safely. No other energy source accounts for its byproducts with this level of precision. We’ve spent decades debating while emissions keep rising. Society needs reliable baseload power without burning anything or covering hundreds of square kilometers to get it. Let’s stop treating nuclear waste as if it’s unmanageable. It’s already managed. And it’s orders of magnitude smaller than the waste streams we ignore every day. Nuclear is the one of the most viable energy solutions we have for a livable planet. It’s time we stopped fighting about it. #NuclearEnergy #CleanEnergy #ClimateAction

“The error is to pay little attention to #energyefficiency as a driver of the energy transition. However, energy efficiency has thus far driven more emission reductions than #renewables. For example, since 2010 gains in energy intensity have averaged 1.7% a year, saving about ten times as much primary energy as #solar and #wind added, according to IEA’s data. In 2022, energy efficiency saved over 3 times as much primary energy as the growth of solar and wind. Despite the magnitude of efficiency gains, renewables get nearly all the headlines. As Amory Lovins remarks, solar panels are highly visible whereas unused energy is invisible, almost unimaginable and as a result gets little attention. Lovins first highlighted the power of energy efficiency to drive change 40 years ago and it has been a constant and underestimated feature of the energy transition since. Furthermore, if the efficiency gains of the past were large, they are about to get larger. There are still huge untapped opportunities for energy efficiency to wring more work from fewer inputs. Material innovation, integrative design and more digitization will continue to create smarter, leaner and lighter energy systems. In addition to this, the shift from inefficient fossil-fueled electricity generation to solar and wind uses around 60% less primary energy, the shift from oil to electricity in transport uses around 75% less primary energy, and the shift from thermal boilers to heat pumps uses around 75% less primary energy. As these technologies continue to grow on their S-curves, so they will increase the annual rate of efficiency gains. As a result, the aspiration to double efficiency gains by 2030 is much more achievable than commonly perceived.”

Final 45V (Hydrogen Production Tax Credit) rules announced today, by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and IRS, after consideration of roughly 30,000 public comments over the past year. This provides additional clarity and flexibility that will help facilitate clean hydrogen investment. Examples of key changes include: Incrementality: Additional pathways provided for: nuclear plant retirement risk, State policies that meet certain criteria (currently California and Washington), and new carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Time matching: Extends the transition from annual to hourly matching starting in 2030 instead of 2028. (Once hourly matching is required, the final rules allow hydrogen producers to determine electricity-related lifecycle emissions on an hourly basis as long as the annual emissions of the hydrogen production process are under 45V’s limit of 4 kg of CO2e per kg of hydrogen produced. This option will provide additional investment certainty because it helps producers avoid losing much of the credit value if they cannot procure Energy Attribute Certificates (EACs) for a limited number of hours during the year. The final regulations also provide rules for determining eligibility of hydrogen produced using methane reforming technologies, including with CCS, or with the use of natural gas alternatives such as renewable natural gas (RNG) or coal mine methane. The final rules will enable investment certainty by allowing the option of using the version of the 45VH2-GREET model that was the most recent when the facility began construction. Stay tuned: DOE will soon release an updated version of the 45VH2-GREET model to calculate the tax credit. See below for details: https://lnkd.in/evNn6RqT

The FT writes, geothermal energy is quietly gaining popularity in the US as new technological advancements may be able to scale this carbon-free, 24/7 power source. Traditional geothermal plants, which generate electricity by moving fluid along hot rocks, must be located near natural reservoirs of hot water that exist below the earth’s surface. But advances in the technology can utilize techniques from the oil and gas industry to drill wells that can generate energy from man-made reservoirs that can be located anywhere. “The same skillsets that are used for oil and gas drilling are what allows for next generation geothermal to move forward,” said Drew Nelson, VP of programs, policy and strategy at Project InnerSpace, a non-profit focused on advancing the geothermal industry. Next-generation geothermal has already attracted support from big tech companies, including Google, which are seeking clean energy for their data centers. It also has the support of the White House. Energy secretary Chris Wright named the power source as an area of interest during his confirmation hearing. Google has already partnered with Fervo Energy to supply power to its data centers in Nevada. Another geothermal start-up, Sage Geosystems Inc., has agreed to supply Meta with 150MW of capacity to power its data centers starting in 2027. “The need for power from the AI sector has only increased the interest overall in geothermal,” said Cindy Taff, CEO of Sage Geosystems, adding that there had been “significant interest” from other hyperscalers in the energy source. The IEA reported geothermal meets less than 1% of global energy demand but with continued project cost reductions and technological improvements, it estimates that it could meet up to 15% of global electricity demand growth to 2050. Geothermal also fits with the Trump admin’s mantra of “drill baby drill,” as it can leverage fracking and drilling skills from the oil and gas industry. Wood Mackenzie estimates that if geothermal is to grow from 50GW to over 250GW by 2050, the industry needs to drill 35,000 new wells. Experts warn that the technology still has a long way to go. The Department of Energy said in a report last year that it expects “commercial lift-off” to be attainable as early as 2030 but only if it “can achieve a set of market conditions around cost, demonstrations, value and community engagement”. It is very expensive to drill. Gregory Keoleian, director at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability, said that in certain areas of the US, hot rock that isn’t close to the surface will force producers to drill deeper—an increasingly expensive endeavor. Still, as the technology becomes more advanced it is likely to drive down costs. Last year, Fervo Energy announced it had shown a 70% year-over-year reduction in drilling times for its Cape Station project that has translated into costs falling from $9.4mn to $4.8mn per well. ♻️⚡👀 #geothermal #energy #renewables

Nations succeed when they harness their resources for technological advantage. For AI, this means advanced chips, data, and energy – and expanding America’s AI infrastructure is crucial to driving economic growth and maintaining our edge over China. Today, we’re proposing a set of ambitious ideas for how to build more of it. If we get this right – we can reindustrialize the country, revitalize the American Dream, and ensure democratic, free AI prevails over autocratic, authoritarian AI.🚀 1️⃣ AI Economic Zones: States can incentivize faster permitting and approvals for AI infrastructure, making it easier to bring dormant nuclear reactors back online and build new wind farms and solar arrays while incentivizing states and local communities to participate by allocating a portion of the AI compute generated to support the standing up of AI developer hubs in the local community. ☀️ 2️⃣ National Transmission Highway Act: We need an ambitious program akin to the 1956 Interstate Highway Act to expand transmission lines, fiber connectivity, and natural gas pipeline construction. Providing authority and funding to address the “Three P’s”—planning, permitting, and payment—will be essential to unlocking the vast amounts of renewable energy currently stuck in backlogs. ⚡ 3️⃣ Government Backstops for AI Public Works: The government can encourage private investors to fund high-cost energy infrastructure projects by committing to purchase energy and other means that lessen credit risk. The investment should include investment in training a new generation of workers to support and run this infrastructure. This collaboration plays to each sector’s strengths: government sets the goals, industry builds to meet them. 🏗️ 4️⃣ North American Compact for AI: The US and its neighbors can team up to streamline access to capital, supply chains, and talent in a way that supports AI infrastructure construction. Over time, it could expand to a global network of our allies, creating an economic bloc capable of competing with any in the world. 🌎 5️⃣ Tapping the Expertise of the Nuclear Navy: Nuclear power is America’s largest source of clean energy, yet our infrastructure is aging. By tapping into the expertise of our nuclear Navy—which operates about 100 small modular reactors on its submarines—we can help to revive America’s nuclear ecosystem. ⚛️ OpenAI is committed to working with forward-thinking leaders from both parties to turn these ideas into reality. It’s time to do what America does best: think big, act big, and build big. 💪

Why has the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy proceeded so slowly? Some analysts attribute the delay to the intermittent and perceived unreliability of renewable energy sources. Others point to political factors and inconsistent government policies, while still others highlight resistance from fossil fuel companies and incumbent industries. Each of these factors has some validity. But there is another critical factor that is less widely understood or discussed: stagnation in construction productivity growth. The first chart (courtesy of McKinsey & Company) illustrates that between 2000 and 2022, global manufacturing productivity nearly doubled, whereas construction productivity showed minimal progress. This divergence poses significant challenges for renewable energy deployment. While much attention is given to the declining manufacturing costs of renewable technologies (e.g., the widely heralded decrease in the price of solar panels), the costs associated with installing renewable energy projects have remained high due to negligible improvements in construction productivity. This significantly hinders the overall energy transition as manufacturing renewable energy technologies is of no value until projects are built. In the United States, the situation is even worse. As depicted in the second chart, U.S. construction productivity has decreased by 25% over the same period. Conversely, only China has achieved meaningful productivity gains in construction. This productivity advantage helps explain China's remarkable success in renewable energy deployment— in 2024 alone, China installed more solar capacity than the United States has accumulated in its entire history. To effectively address #climate change, improving construction productivity must become a greater focus of political and business leaders, especially in the United States and Europe.

China powers ahead in renewables, building more solar and wind than the rest of the world combined A transformation is underway on China’s windswept steppes and sun-drenched deserts. From Xinjiang in the northwest to coastal Jiangsu and Guangdong, vast arrays of photovoltaic panels and towering wind turbines are sprouting at a pace unmatched anywhere on Earth. According to a new report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM), China is building 510 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind capacity—74% of the global total under construction. The scale is staggering: a single gigawatt can power about a million homes. The country now boasts 1.4 terawatts (TW) of operating solar and wind capacity, more than the combined total of the United States, European Union, and India. A further 1.3 TW is in various stages of planning and construction. By the end of March 2025, renewables supplied nearly 23% of China’s electricity, surpassing thermal power capacity for the first time. This expansion has been fueled by a mix of motivations: a drive for energy security, a desire to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports, and mounting pressure to address climate concerns. Much of the activity is concentrated in northern regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, where land is abundant and solar irradiance high. These two regions alone host over 40% of China’s prospective capacity. In 2024, China added 278 GW of solar—more than triple the figure from just two years earlier—and 46 GW of wind. Among the standout developments is the Midong Solar Farm in Xinjiang, the world’s largest single-site solar installation at 3.5 GW. Offshore wind is also gaining momentum. From under 5 GW in 2018, China’s offshore fleet has surged to 42.7 GW—over half of global capacity under construction. Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces lead the charge, together accounting for more than half of China’s offshore capacity. New initiatives include powering industrial facilities directly from sea-based turbines and pilot projects producing green hydrogen. Yet challenges remain: the end of generous national subsidies in 2021 led to a slowdown in new installations, prompting some provinces to launch their own incentive schemes. Despite these headwinds, China’s renewables march continues. Offshore wind projects now total 67 GW in the pipeline, 28 GW of which are already under construction. Floating turbines and storm-resistant technologies are being tested in deepwater locations, including the South China Sea. Even as coal and gas projects persist, the center of gravity in China’s energy system is shifting rapidly—and the rest of the world is watching.

🏢🌎 The International Energy Agency (IEA) just released its 2023 Net Zero Roadmap. My takeaways for the buildings sector: - I love how much it focuses on retrofitting buildings: "Retrofitting is one of the main levers for decarbonizing the buildings sector." - Existing buildings need to undergo DEEP RETROFITS to become as energy efficient as possible with existing technology - The retrofit rate needs to be about 2.5% per year in advanced economies - This will make buildings "zero carbon ready," meaning they will be operational carbon zero as soon as the power grids they rely on are fully decarbonized - Retrofitting existing buildings for energy efficiency will lower energy intensity in the buildings sector by 60% compared to today, despite a 55% increase in the amount of floorspace in the building sector - Retrofits save building owners substantial money on energy bills, and local governments want to bolster these savings with policies that encourage retrofits and make them more affordable Our global economy will not reach net zero by ignoring buildings. Historically buildings have not gotten the same attention as agriculture or transportation, but that is changing! Full report: https://lnkd.in/ev4KsVyr #realestate #climate #retrofit

Yesterday, I saw what tomorrow holds for India—a future growing on the land of Mr. Nirmal Das Swami, a farmer in Rajasthan.   Through a government program, Nirmal transformed his 9 hectares of farmland into a solar powerhouse, generating 1.04 megawatts of clean energy.    The impact? Beyond his crops and income, it’s lighting up his entire community:   → Salim, a welding business owner, doubled his working hours and revenue—hiring 6 new workers. → Firoz, a flour mill owner, increased daily production from 500 to 1,000 kg and is employing more people. → Women farmers like Gita, Anju, and Ghisi no longer have to wake up in the middle of the night, the only time power was previously available, to irrigate their crops.   Daytime power has replaced erratic nighttime electricity, enabling livelihoods to thrive.   Rajasthan is proof that changing energy changes lives, especially in rural India.   Today, India is betting big on a just energy transition—by deploying 500 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030.    So far, they’ve achieved over 200 GW. Partnerships like the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), of which The Rockefeller Foundation is a member, are paving the way for even greater innovation and impact. For example, GEAPP is supporting 59 solar plants like Nirmal’s, providing 108 megawatts in support of 30,000 farms and enhancing 64,000 jobs across Rajasthan.   This kind of work doesn’t just transform lives—it transforms entire communities.   This is more than a story of one village. This is the future of India.

Over the past ten years, global electricity generated by solar increased 10x. Another 10x increase is possible by 2034, providing abundant clean energy. In today's episode, I detail how A.I. can help us get there. 10x ☀️ GROWTH: • Solar panels cover an area the size of Jamaica, providing 6% of global electricity. • Solar capacity doubles every three years, increasing tenfold each decade. • Projected to provide 60% of world's electricity by 2034 if trend continues. • Solar could become the largest source of all energy by the 2040s. VIRTUOUS ECONOMICS: • Cost of solar-produced electricity could drop to less than half of today's cheapest options. • Virtuous cycle: Increased production lowers costs, driving up demand. • No significant resource constraints unlike all previous energy transitions (i.e., wood to coal, coal to oil, oil to gas). • All of the main ingredients (silicon-rich sand, sunny places, human ingenuity) are abundant... so the virtuous economic cycle can proceed unhindered. KEY CHALLENGES (and how to address them with data science): 1. Energy Storage and Grid Management: • Complementary storage solutions needed for 24/7 energy demands. • A.I. can optimize battery management systems. • Machine learning can enhance energy-grid management. 2. Heavy Industry, Aviation, and Freight Electrification: • Machine learning can optimize battery architectures. • A.I. can enhance synthetic fuel (e-fuel!) production processes. 3. Solar Energy Production Optimization: • A.I. for discovering new photovoltaic materials. • Generative A.I. to predict successful solar project locations. • A.I. to optimize solar-panel production processes. IMPACT: • Cheaper energy will boost productivity across all sectors. • Improved accessibility to essential services for billions. • Breakthroughs in drinking-water access through affordable purification and desalination. • Opportunities for unforeseen innovations in an era of energy abundance. Hear more on all this (including about a dozen resources for learning more about how you — yes, you! — can address climate/energy challenges with data science) in today's episode. The "Super Data Science Podcast with Jon Krohn" is available on your favorite podcasting platform and a video version is on YouTube (although today's episode's "video" is solely an audio-waveform animation). This is Episode #804. #superdatascience #machinelearning #ai #climatechange #solar #energy